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Goal Provide viable residential communities so all residents can choose sound, affordable housing that meets individual needs. Residential Land Supply and Demand .Findings 1. By 2015, the Eugene-Springfield Metropolitan Study Area is projected to reach a population of between 291,000 and 311,000. This represents an increase of between approximately 87,000 and 107,000 persons from the 1990 population of 204,359. 2. Average household size has been declining both nationally and locally due to a variety of factors. This trend will result in the need for more dwelling units to house population growth. 3. Based on the 2015 projected population and average household size, there is a need for between 40,000 and 49,000 new housing units in the Eugene-Springfield urban growth boundary between 1992 and 2015. 4. There is sufficient buildable residential land within the existing urban growth boundary to meet the future housing needs of the projected population. In fact, the 1992 residential buildable land supply exceeds the 1992-2015 residential land demand in all residential categories. Assuming land is consumed evenly over the period, by 1999, there will be at least a 20-year supply of residential land remaining inside the urban growth boundary. 5. Undeveloped residential land is considered unbuildable and removed from the supply if it is within 230 KV powerline easements, the floodway, protected wetlands or wetland mitigation sites in Eugene, wetlands larger than 0.25 acres in Springfield or buffers around Class A and B streams and ponds. The remaining builclable residential land is located Primarily on the outer edge of the UGB and some of the buildable residential land has development constraints such as slopes, floodplain, hydric soils and wetlands. Development potential is reducedin Springfield on flood plain areas and in Eugene on remaining potential wetlands due to moderate constraints that can support a less intense level of development. 6. Anticipated federal regulations affecting fish habitats in the Pacific Northwest and new applications for regulating under-designated, saturated, hydric soils by Oregon's Division of State Lands, as well as other factors, make a definitive calculation of the buildable land supply difficult. The adopted buildable land supply inventory represents the local jurisdiction's best assessment of the amount of buildable land that will be available within the urban growth boundary until the year 2015. 1¥-21 III-A-2 Metro Plan Replacement Page December 1999