Item A: Coordinated Population Projection

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ECC UGENE ITY OUNCIL AIS GENDA TEM UMMARY Work Session: Coordinated Population Projections Meeting Date: June 11, 2008 Agenda Item Number: A Department: Planning and Development Staff Contact: Lisa Gardner www.eugene-or.gov Contact Telephone Number: 682-5208 ISSUE STATEMENT The council received a memo in the May 15 Council packet (Attachment A) that provided an update on the implementation of House Bill 3337 and previewed an upcoming decision point for the council. The council is requested to direct staff to begin the process of establishing a population forecast for Eugene. The establishment of the population forecast is necessary to make progress on the City’s compliance with House Bill 3337 through the Eugene Comprehensive Lands Assessment study. This work session will provide additional detail as the basis for the requested council action. BACKGROUND Lane County is statutorily required to prepare population forecasts for the county as a whole and for each urban area within the county. Some time ago, Lane County delegated its authority to do so to the Lane Council of Governments (LCOG). In 2007, LCOG prepared a coordinated Lane County population forecast at the request of several cities. However, on April 30, 2008, the Board of County Commissioners passed a resolution rejecting LCOG’s forecast, resuming County responsibility for forecasting and stating that the County would wait to conduct the population forecast until its next periodic review. The studies required by House Bill 3337 require that a 20-year population forecast be established for both Eugene and Springfield much sooner than the County’s next periodic review. In the resolution described above, the County acknowledged that state statutes provide an alternate population forecasting method that cities may pursue prior to the County Board’s adoption of a coordinated, county-wide forecast. This alternate method is commonly referred to as the “safe harbor” method. The safe harbor approach allows for the establishment of a population forecast for only those urban areas of the County that request its use. The safe harbor approach has minimal impact on Lane County and simply extends the existing population projection for the area, as determined by the State Office of Economic Analysis, to the later date and assumes that the growth will remain constant to the later date. The safe harbor approach allows cities to lawfully establish a population figure for analysis purposes in situations such as currently exists, where a new figure is not otherwise being adopted. The City of Springfield is moving forward with the initiation of a Metro Plan amendment to begin the process for establishing a safe harbor forecast for its urban area. City of Eugene staff has been coordinating closely with the City of Springfield and Lane County, and believe that, unless the Board of Commissioners changes its course, the safe harbor approach will also be necessary for Eugene to proceed with the analysis required for compliance with HB 3337 in the mandated time-frame. Z:\CMO\2008 Council Agendas\M080611\S080611A.doc