Item 1: Supply of Commercial and Industrial Land in Lane County

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Appendix A Framework for Buildable land Inventories This chapter provides a brief overview of typical methods and assumptions used to conduct buildable land inventories. This project resulted in a commercial and industrial lands database that can be used to develop local inventories. While it presents summary data, the output presented in this report does not represent a policy decision by any of the sponsoring governments. OVERVIEW Developers and planners should be interested in long-term real estate market interactions. One way to analyze such interactions is to conduct a Land Needs Assessment (essentially a 20-year market analysis). It is useful to think of a Land Needs Assessment6 as containing a supply analysis (buildable and redevelopable land by type) and a demand analysis (population and employment growth leading to demand for more built space: residential and non-residential development). Figure A-I shows the key relationships that influence a Land Needs Assessment. In this instance the geographic extent of the Land Needs Assessment is Lane County.7 Figure A-I shows the complex factors that affect land markets and provides a framework for thinking about how to conduct a Land Needs Assessment. The demand side begins with growth drivers: population and employment. Population is converted into households and then dwelling units; density assumptions allow an estimate of land needed to accommodate new population. On the commercial and industrial side, employment forecasts are converted to building space and land needed by using employment per acre assumptions. The supply analysis begins with all parcels. Parcels of land are then classified as developed or vacant. Not all vacant land is available for development. Some land will have constraints such as steep slopes or floodplains. These lands are typically deducted from the inventory. Parcels are then aggregated by potential use (e.g., residential, commercial, or industrial). Land supply is then compared with demand to determine whether enough land will be available to accommodate demand during the planning period. 6 A Land Needs Assessment is an analytical tool planners can use to evaluate the interaction of land supply and demand within a defined region. This chapter describes the framework for completing a Land Need Assessment. 7 This is not quite technically accurate; every jurisdiction with an Urban Growth Boundary and a population over 2500 is required by Goals 9, 10, and 14 to periodically conduct a land needs assessment. DRAFT: Commercial and Industrial Lands Database ECONorthwest July 2006 Page 18