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part, on the effect of foreclosures on potential owner's ability to purchase homes in the future, as well as whether the conditions that have led to homeownership growth can be sustained. The Urban Land Institute forecasts that homeownership will decline to the low 60 percent range by 2015.17 The Joint Center for Housing Studies indicates that demand for new homes could total as many as 12 million units nationally between 2010 and 2020. The location of these homes may be different than recent trends, which favored lower -density development on the urban fringe and suburban areas. The Urban Land Institute identifies the markets that have the most growth potential are "global gateway, 24-hour markets," which are primary coastal cities with international airport hubs (e.g., Washington D.C., New York City, San Francisco, or Seattle). Development in these areas may be nearer city centers, with denser infill types of development.18 The Joint Center for Housing Studies also indicates that demand for higher density housing types exists among certain demographics. They conclude that because of persistent income disparities, as well as the movement of the echo boomers into young adulthood, housing demand may shift away from single-family detached homes toward more affordable multi -family apartments, town homes, and manufactured homes. Home rental trends Nationally, the rental market continues to experience growth, adding 1.0 million rental households in 2011 and averaging 730,000 new rental households per year from 2005 through 2011. After an increase in the overall rental vacancy rate from 9.6% in 2007 to 10.6% in 2009, the rental market has begun to tighten. The rental vacancy rate fell to 9.5% in 2011. Over the longer term, the Joint Center for Housing expects demand for rental housing to continue to grow. Minorities will be the largest driver of rental demand, because they are on average younger and less likely to own homes than whites. In 2011, minorities accounted for 46% of rental households but only 30% of all households. From 2004 to 2011, minorities contributed 59% of the growth in number of rental households. The foreign -born share of renter -occupied households increased from 17.4% in 11ohn McIlwain, "Housing in America: The Next Decade," Urban Land Institute 18 Urban Land Institute, "2011 Emerging Trends in Real Estate" and "2012 Emerging Trends in Real Estate" Part 11 — Eugene Housing Needs Analysis ECONorthwest Page 41