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3.3.2 Regional and Local Demographic Trends
<br />Regional demographic trends largely follow the statewide trends
<br />discussed above, but provide additional insight into how demographic
<br />trends might affect housing in Eugene. Demographic trends that might
<br />affect the key assumptions used in the baseline analysis of housing need
<br />are: (1) the aging population, (2) changes in household size and
<br />composition, and (3) increases in diversity. This section describes those
<br />trends.
<br />Growing population
<br />Population growth in Oregon tends to follow economic cycles.
<br />Historically, Oregon's economy is more cyclical than the nation's, growing
<br />faster than the national economy during expansions, and contracting more
<br />rapidly than the nation during recessions. Oregon grew more rapidly than
<br />the U.S. in the 1990s (which was generally an expansionary period) but
<br />lagged behind the U.S. in the 1980s. Oregon's slow growth in the 1980s
<br />was primarily due to the nationwide recession early in the decade. As the
<br />nation's economic growth slowed during 2007, Oregon's population
<br />growth began to slow.
<br />Table 11 shows that Oregon's population grew from 2.8 million people in
<br />1990 to 3.9 million people in 2012, an increase of over 1,000,000 people at
<br />an average annual rate of 1.43%. Oregon's growth rate slowed to a 1.06%
<br />annual growth rate between 2000 and 2012.
<br />Lane County grew slower than the State between 1990 and 2012, growing
<br />at 1.03% annually and adding over 71,000 people. About 45% of the
<br />County's population lived in Eugene in 2012. Eugene's population grew
<br />faster than the County average, at 1.56% annually, adding 45,666 residents
<br />over the twenty-two year period.
<br />Table 11. Population in the U.S., Oregon, the Willamette Valley, Lane County, and
<br />Eugene, 1990-2012
<br />Area
<br />U.S.
<br />Oregon
<br />Willamette Valley
<br />Lane County
<br />Population I Chanc
<br />1990 2000 2012 1 Number
<br />e 1990 to 2012
<br />Percent AAGR
<br />248,709,873 281,421,906 313,914,040 65,204,167 26% 1.06%
<br />2,842,321
<br />3,421,399
<br />1,962,816
<br />2,380,606
<br />282,912
<br />322,959
<br />112,669
<br />137,893
<br />3,883,735
<br />1,041,414
<br />37%
<br />1.43%
<br />2,729,660
<br />766,844
<br />39%
<br />1.51%
<br />354,200
<br />71,288
<br />25%
<br />1.03%
<br />158,335
<br />45,666
<br />41%
<br />1.56%
<br />Source: U.S. Census 1990 SF1 P001, U.S. Census 2000 SF1 P1, U.S. Census Population Estimates,
<br />http://www.census.gov/popest/national/national.html, the Population Research Center at Portland State University
<br />http://www.pdx.edu/prc/population-estimates
<br />Notes: Benton, Clackamas, Lane, Linn, Marion, Multnomah, Polk, Washington, and Yamhill Counties represent the Willamette
<br />Valley Region.
<br />Page 56 ECONorthwest Part 11 — Eugene Housing Needs Analysis
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