Ordinance No. 20585 - Laserfiche WebLink

Home Browse Search

3.5.2 Conclusions about how demographic trends may affect housing choice Identifying future housing need based on expected demographic changes requires making qualitative assessments of the future housing market. Demographic changes are likely to affect housing in Eugene's housing market in the following ways over the next 20 years: On average, future housing will look a lot like past housing. This assumption underlies any trend forecast, and allows some quantification of the composition of demand for new housing. As an approximation, the next five years, and maybe the first 10 years, of residential growth will look a lot like the last decade. If the future differs from the past, it is likely to move in the direction (on average) of smaller units and more diverse housing types. Most of the evidence suggests that the bulk of the change will be in the direction of smaller average house and lot sizes for single-family housing. An aging population, increasing housing costs, and other variables are factors that support the conclusion that the future housing supply will include smaller and less expensive units and a broader array of housing choices. No amount of analysis is likely to make the long -run future any more certain: the purpose of the housing forecasting in this study is to get an approximate idea about the long run so policy choices can be made today. It is accepted among economic forecasters that any economic forecast more than three (or at most five) years out is highly speculative. At one year, the forecast is protected from being disastrously wrong by the sheer inertia of the economic machine. But a variety of factors or events could cause long -run growth forecasts to be substantially different. Page 102 ECONorthwest Eugene Housing Needs Analysis