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4 RESIDENTIAL LAND SUFFICIENCY <br />This Chapter presents an evaluation of the sufficiency of residential land <br />within Eugene's UGB to accommodate expected residential growth over <br />the 2012 to 2032 period. It is organized into the following sections. <br />Sections 4.1 through 4.3 of this Chapter provide an estimate of Eugene's <br />residential development capacity on vacant and partially vacant land, <br />assuming no changes are made to the City's 2012 land use regulations and <br />land use designations. This estimate of development capacity is <br />sometimes referred to as Eugene's "baseline" capacity. Section 4.4 then <br />compares that baseline capacity with the estimate of Eugene's 20 -year <br />housing needs from Chapter 3. The conclusion reached at the end of this <br />Chapter is that Eugene's baseline capacity is sufficient (a surplus) to meet <br />the 20 -year need for land designated Medium -Density Residential <br />("MDR"), but there is a modest deficit of land designated Low -Density <br />("LDR") and High Density Residential ("HDR").42 <br />4.1 Residential development capacity on <br />vacant and partially vacant land <br />This section explains how Eugene estimated residential development <br />capacity. The estimate of residential capacity starts with the determination <br />of acres of vacant residential land, partially vacant residential land, and <br />residential land with redevelopment potential from the Buildable Lands <br />Inventory (BLI). <br />It uses information from Chapter 3 of this HNA about the density of <br />residential development in Eugene to convert from acres of vacant (and <br />partially vacant) land to capacity for residential development in dwelling <br />units. <br />The result of the capacity analysis is an estimate of the number of <br />dwelling units that can be accommodated on Eugene's vacant and <br />partially vacant residential land and on land with redevelopment <br />potential. This estimate of capacity is compared to need for new housing <br />(Table 31) to determine whether Eugene can accommodate the need for <br />new housing through 2032. <br />42 A residential land deficit identified in an HNA must be addressed by the City through <br />reasonable efficiency measures to increase the capacity above the baseline capacity identified in the <br />HNA (e.g., changes to its land use regulations or land use designations), through a UGB expansion <br />to add the needed land, or through a combination of these actions. <br />Part 11 — Eugene Housing Needs Analysis ECONorthwest Page 117 <br />