Ordinance No. 20585 - Laserfiche WebLink

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effective demand for new housing: it is the local equilibrium of demand factors, supply factors, and price. In short, a housing needs analysis should make a distinction between housing that people might need (a normative, social judgment) and what the market will produce (an observable outcome). Goal 10 does not make a clear distinction between the existing stock of housing and new housing. Because a lot of Goal 10 (and Goal 9, the Economy) is aimed at Goal 14 (Urbanization) and a determination of whether more land should be added to urban growth boundaries, there is usually more emphasis on new housing, which will require buildable land. In essence, a Goal -10 evaluation looks at (1) new households that the population forecasts presume will be living in a jurisdiction 20 years in the future, (2) estimates a number of new ("needed") housing units, by type, and (3) estimates the amount of land they will consume when they are constructed. Most housing market analyses and housing elements of comprehensive plans in Oregon make forecasts of new demand (what housing units will get built in response to market forces). Work by housing authorities is more likely to address housing need for special classes, especially low- income. It is the role of cities under Goal 10 to adopt and implement land use policies that will encourage provision of housing units that meet the needs of all residents. It is unlikely that housing markets in any metropolitan area in the U.S. provide housing to meet the needs of every household. Even many upper- income households probably believe they "need" (want) more housing than their wealth and income allows them to afford. A typical standard, used by housing agencies around the country, is excess cost burden: does a household spend more than 30% of its income on housing? But even that standard may not comport with a common-sense notion of housing need: if upper income households are spending 40% of their income on housing because they are highly leveraged, betting on increases in property value, and have substantial wealth that they can invest in mortgage payments, do they have a housing need? Independent of a strict legal interpretation, it is clear that any housing agency is focused on more basic housing needs. At the extreme there is homelessness: some people do not have any shelter at all. Close behind is substandard housing (with health and safety problems), space problems (the structure is adequate but overcrowded), and economic and social problems (the structure is adequate in quality and size, but a household has to devote so much of its income to housing payments that other Page 10 ECONorthwest Part 11 — Eugene Housing Needs Analysis