06/07/1979 Meeting - Laserfiche WebLink

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50 years. Eugene had the lowest average annual growth rate since the 1930's. Growth rate due to in-migration for the whole county has 4IIt decreased in the 1970's from the 1960's. However, Eugene's net in- migration in additions to the population is more than double. The annual increase in population for the past 15 years (1960-75) has averaged out at 3,000 per year. He noted the components of growth in- cluded natural increase (which has been declining over the entire period); annexation of already developed land, noting the population jump of 16.3 percent because of the 1963 annexation of the Bethel area; and the net in-migration which accounted for 29 percent of the growth in the 1960's and about 76 percent of the growth in the 1970's. In making comparisons with other areas, Mr. Carlson noted that Oregon had the 13th fastest growth rate among all the states from 1970-77. Of the 36 counties in Oregon, Lane County had the 14th fastest growth rate. For cities over 10,000 population, Eugene had the 9th fastest growth rate, while Springfield had the 4th. In addressing the question of why the cities of Eugene and Springfield have been growing faster and the rate of in-migration has increased, while the County's rate has decreased, Mr. Carlson said it appears the urban service boundary concept and actions taken by Lane County (i.e., moratoriums in River Road/Santa Clara area) have focused development inside the cities. He directed Council to Table 14 which indicated the substantial increase since 1972 in the building of single-family homes inside the city. This also is causing in-migration and the population growth rate to be higher in the city. With the use of Table 15, he noted ~ the substantial increase in the resident population joining the labor ~ force and Table 16 indicated the decline in the average household size. He stressed the importance of these two social factors, plus the decrease in average household size which afect population growth, noting it to be a very complex issue. He said census estimates would be available in November. Components ~f growth estimates are based on the building-unit method, using the number of units multiplied by a vacancy rate. However, in 1975 the rules were changed, lowering the average number of household size; these rules will also apply this year. Therefore, even though there is a building boom in the area, the data will not indicate a large increase in growth rate because of the estimation methodology. In response to a question from Mr. Hamel, Mr. Farah said the bedroom count differed from household count in that the bedroom count would be based on recording the number of bed- rooms per structure when a building permit is issued. Referring to Table 14, regarding single-family units built, Mayor Keller wondered how healthy 91 percent for Eugene for 1977 was. John Porter said the trend of single-family houses is at a peak because if avail- ability of money. There is less money available for multiple-family housing, but if there were more, he felt the trend would be the same. He also said if there had been no in-migration, the city still would have needed 40 percent more single-family housing in 1977. - 6/7 /78--4 'il~