Agenda Packet 9-10-18 Work Session

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Attachment D MEMORANDUM To: Rob Inerfeld, City of Eugene From: Kelly Clarke, Lane Council of Governments DATE: 2/6/2018 RE: Eugene Transportation System Plan as it Relates to Climate Recovery Ordinance Goals The Eugene 2035 Transportation System Plan (ETSP) was adopted by the City Council June, 2017. In addition to adopting the ETSP, Council adopted resolutions that require more detailed planning to integrate climate recovery ordiance (CRO) goals, Vision Zero and electric and autonomous vehicles into the ETSP within one year of adoption. City, ODOT and LCOG staff have utilized the Regional Strategic Scenario Planning Model (RSPM), a scenario planning tool, to evaluate whether the adopted TSP will reach the CRO goals when fully implemented. RSPM worked for this purpose by modeling a wide range of adopted goals, policies, programs and projects relating to active transportation, fleet and fuels, transit, pricing, parking management, education and marketing, and the roadway system and evaluating their impact on fuel consumption and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. Inputs are included in the attached table. It should be noted that while the CRO fossil fuel goal is a reduction of fossil fuel use by 50% by 2030, the TSP forecast year is 2035 and, therefore, RSMP results are to a 2035 forecast year. Three scenarios were tested: Scenario Description Examples of Inputs 2035 Adopted Plans Models the adopted ETSP, regional and state* goals, policies, programs and projects. • Bike trips: 24% (models the ETSP goal of tripling bike trips) • Workplace TDM: 6% (proportion of working age persons anticipated to work for employers with strong commute options) • Light trucks: 48% (percentage of light trucks as share of household vehicles) 2035 What If #1 Tests a moderately aggressive increase to the adopted goals, policies, programs and projects. • Bike trips: 24% (maintains an already aggressive percentage) • Workplace TDM: 10% • Light trucks: 39% 2035 What If #2 Tests an aggressive increase to the adopted goals, policies, programs and projects. • Bike trips: 24% (maintains an already aggressive percentage) • Workplace TDM: 25% • Light trucks: 30% Climate Recovery Ordinance Goals: •Reduce fossil fuel use by 50% by 2030 •By the year 2100, total community greenhouse gas emissions shall be average share of a global atmospheric greenhouse gas level of 350 ppm, which is estimated in 2016 to require an annual average emission reduction level of 7.6%. September 10, 2018, Work Session - Item 2