Agenda Packet 9-10-18 Work Session

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Inputs for Regional Strategic Planning Model (RSPM) 2010 Adopted Plans 2035 Adopted Plans "What If' Scenario 1 "What If" Scenario 2 What is the source of this input? What does this input influence? Referenced from the Oregon Strategic Assissment - RSPM User's Guide Active transportation Population in Mixed Use areas 16%*16%16% 16% US Census and City Zoning This classification represents several land use characteristics that collectively create a successful compact multi‐modal mixed‐use areas, which have been shown to reduce vehicular travel. More specifically, pedestrian travel is sensitive to land use types. RSPM captures pedestrian travel as a characteristic of mixed‐use areas. Bike Diversion 8%24%24% 24% ETSP Goal 5 ‐By the year 2035 triple the percentage of trips made on foot, by bicycle, and by transit from 2014 levels. Percentage of trips in the region that are diverted from auto to bike. Fleet and fuels Average MPG 24 52 54 56 Influenced by population, pricing and the State Target Rule OAR 660‐044 Higher MPG has lower fossil fuel consumption. Percent Light Truck (e.g. SUV, pickup truck, van) Share of Household Vehicles 48%48%39% 30% City of Eugene DMV data and the state target rule OAR 660‐044 Fewer SUVs, pick up trucks, vans and other light trucks per households indicates higher fuel efficient vehicles. Percentage ICE 99% 35% 35% 35% Influenced by population, pricing and the State Target Rule OAR 660‐044 As fewer vehicles with ICE are on the road, fossile fuel consumption will go down. Percentage HEV 1%61%61% 61% Influenced by population, pricing and the State Target Rule OAR 660‐044 HEV's have lower fossil fuel consumption needs. Percentage PHEV/EV 0% 4% 4% 4% Influenced by population, pricing and the State Target Rule OAR 660‐044 PHEV/EV's have lower fossil fuel consumption needs. Average Vehicle Age 10 8 8 8 Influenced by population, pricing and the State Target Rule OAR 660‐044 Newer cars have more modern fuel efficiencies. This input indicates fleet turn over and overall higher efficiencies. Transit Transit Service (Svc/capita)12 19 19 19 Lane Transit District Transit revenue miles are the number of miles travelled by a transit vehicle in the revenue service. This input is a significant predictor of household vehicle ownership and travel. Pricing (MPO) Gas Taxes ($/gallon)$0.46 $0.62 $0.80 $1.00 This input includes federal, state and local gas taxes Gas prices impact peoples decisions on how to travel. Lower gas prices result in higher VMT. Pay As You Drive (PAYD) Insurance 0% 0% 10% 20%ETSP PAYD can incintivize motorists not to drive by reducing travel to save money. Parking management Coverage ‐ Workers 8%7%10% 12%ETSP/Envision Eugene Overall travel costs (including parking) impact a household's VMT. Higher parking costs result in lower VMT. Coverage ‐ NonWorkers 5%4%8% 10%ETSP/Envision Eugene Overall travel costs (including parking) impact a household's VMT. Higher parking costs result in lower VMT. Parking Cost (ave $/day)* $3.19 $2.82 $4.00 $4.00 ETSP Overall travel costs impact a household's VMT. Higher costs result in lower VMT. Work Parking Buyout 0% 0% 3% 5%ETSP Incintivizes employees not to drive to work becaue there is not available parking. Education and marketing Workplace TDM 3%6%10% 25%ETSP Goals and Policies TDM programs result in a reduction of VMT by diverting trips to other modes. Household Marketing 0.8%4%8% 10%ETSP Goals and Policies TDM programs result in a reduction of VMT by diverting trips to other modes. Eco‐Driving/fuel‐efficiency education programs 2.5%3%8% 10%ETSP Goals and Policies Eco‐Driving/fuel‐efficiency education programs reduce emissions per VMT. Carshare Vehicles Available 375130 130 ETSP Goals and Policies Car sharing reduces VMT through changes in auto ownership and per mile costs. Roads (MPO) ITS/Operational Program (% of ideal coverage for city size)ITS programs determine the area roadway speeds which influence fuel efficiency. Ramps 0% 50% 60% 70% Best practice and supported through ETSP policies Ramp signalization reduces highway congestion Incidents 30% 50% 60% 70% Best practice and supported through ETSP policies Incident management systems help address non‐recurring congestion caused by traffic incidents (collisions, breakdowns, etc) Signal 57%80%85% 90% Best practice and supported through ETSP policies Traffic signal optimication decreases congestion and reduces idling Access 40% 50% 60% 70% Best practice and supported through ETSP policies Access management decreases congestion by limiting the number of accesses (e.g. driveways, intersecting roads) and reducing conflict points (e.g. through addition of median barriers) Road Capacity (Lane‐miles in MPO) Freeway 120 126 126 126 ETSP and Regional Transportation Plan Freeway supply is a significant predictor of househould vehicle ownership and travel. Arterial 303 307 307 307 ETSP and Regional Transportation Plan Arterial supply is an indicator for estimating traffic congestion levels. Traffic congestion affects average trip speeds, vehicle fuel economy and emissions. BACKGROUND INPUTS Average Household Income 48,744$ 58,134$ 58,134$ 58,134$ Market Price of Fuel (excluding tax) $2.43 $5.58 $5.58 $5.58 * Underlined inputs reflect Eugene specifically Abbreviations ICE Internal combustion engines HEV Hybrid electric vehicle PHEV/EV Plug‐in hybred electric vehicle /electric vehicle PAYD Pay as you drive VMT Vehicle Miles Traveled DVMT Daily Vehicles Miles Traveled Inputs for modeling of the Eugene 2035 TSP as it relates to the CRO Attachment E September 10, 2018, Work Session - Item 2