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PNW Economics
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<br />Page 6
<br />Prepared for: City of Eugene
<br />Prepared by: PNW Economics
<br />Response to MUPTE Citizen Advisory Committee Meeting #2 Questions
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<br />Applicant-Assumed Rent Income With MUPTE
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<br />Table 5 expresses the revised pro forma replacing Table 14 from the original MUPTE application
<br />review document. With corrected, lower operating expenses and corrected, higher absorption
<br />vacancy as explained:
<br />• The project suffers a Year 1 loss of cash for an estimated cash-on-cash return of -2.5%
<br />instead of 0.3% positive return previously estimated.
<br />• Year 2 performance is stronger due to revised operating expenses for 11.0% cash-on-
<br />cash return instead of 10.0% previously estimated. Every year thereafter is stronger as
<br />well due to the lower operating cost estimates.
<br />• With MUPTE, and very aggressively assuming the project earns all amenity rent
<br />premiums above market rents, the project suffers a loss in Year 1, but more than
<br />recovers in Year 2.
<br />• We would still conclude that MUPTE is critical to the chances of the Gordon Lofts
<br />project to be financially feasible, and may not be considered traditionally feasible even
<br />with MUPTE and aggressive rent assumptions.
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<br />Table 5 – Scenario 2 Pro Forma With MUPTE: Market-Achievable Rents & Amenity Income (Replaces Review Table 14)
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<br />Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10
<br />2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
<br />Apartment Rent Income $2,415,543 $2,488,010 $2,562,650 $2,639,529 $2,718,715 $2,800,277 $2,884,285 $2,970,814 $3,059,938 $3,151,736
<br />Retail Lease Income $296,654 $307,037 $317,784 $328,906 $340,418 $352,332 $364,664 $377,427 $390,637 $404,309
<br />Amenity Income $563,211 $580,107 $597,511 $615,436 $633,899 $652,916 $672,503 $692,678 $713,459 $734,863
<br />Misc. Income 4%$108,488 $111,802 $115,217 $118,737 $122,365 $126,104 $129,958 $133,930 $138,023 $142,242
<br />Gross Project Income $3,383,897 $3,486,956 $3,593,161 $3,702,609 $3,815,397 $3,931,629 $4,051,410 $4,174,849 $4,302,057 $4,433,150
<br /> - Stabilized Vacancy 5%($169,195) ($174,348) ($179,658) ($185,130) ($190,770) ($196,581) ($202,571) ($208,742) ($215,103) ($221,657)
<br /> - Absorption Vacancy & Concessions ($1,165,503) ($23,083) ($23,775) ($24,489) ($25,223) ($25,980) ($26,760) ($27,562) ($28,389) ($29,241)
<br /> Year 1 Absorption Vacancy 37%($1,090,255)$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
<br /> Year 1 Model Unit and Concessions ($75,248)($23,083)($23,775)($24,489)($25,223)($25,980)($26,760)($27,562)($28,389)($29,241)
<br /> = Effective Gross Income $2,049,198 $3,289,525 $3,389,728 $3,492,989 $3,599,404 $3,709,068 $3,822,080 $3,938,544 $4,058,565 $4,182,252
<br /> - Apartment Operating Expense ($456,348) ($764,630) ($787,569) ($811,196) ($835,532) ($860,598) ($886,416) ($913,008) ($940,399) ($968,611)
<br /> - Retail Operating Expense ($55,758) ($57,430) ($59,153) ($60,928) ($62,756) ($64,638) ($66,578) ($68,575) ($70,632) ($72,751)
<br /> + MUPTE $378,635 $389,994 $401,694 $413,745 $426,157 $438,942 $452,110 $465,673 $479,643 $494,033
<br /> = Net Operating Income (NOI)$1,915,728 $2,857,459 $2,944,699 $3,034,610 $3,127,273 $3,222,773 $3,321,197 $3,422,634 $3,527,177 $3,634,923
<br /> - Debt Service (79% Loan-to-Cost)($2,087,537)($2,087,537)($2,087,537)($2,087,537)($2,087,537)($2,087,537)($2,087,537)($2,087,537)($2,087,537)($2,087,537)
<br /> = Before Tax Cash Flow ($171,809)$769,922 $857,162 $947,073 $1,039,736 $1,135,236 $1,233,660 $1,335,097 $1,439,640 $1,547,386
<br />Cash-on-Cash Return -2.5% 11.0% 12.2% 13.5% 14.9% 16.2% 17.6% 19.1% 20.6% 22.1%
<br />Value - 6% Cap Rate 6%$31,928,803 $47,624,310 $49,078,319 $50,576,833 $52,121,218 $53,712,882 $55,353,277 $57,043,900 $58,786,291 $60,582,043
<br />Maximum Private Loan (6% Interest)
<br />Loan-to-Cost (Applicant Plan)79%($27,000,000)
<br />Loan-To-Value 75%($35,718,233)$8,718,233 If negative, represents a gap in maximum debt due to insufficient NOI under Loan-to-Value method
<br />Debt Coverage Ratio 1.2 ($33,097,232)$6,097,232 If negative, represents a gap in maximum debt due to insufficient NOI under Debt Coverage Ratio method
<br />Total Development Cost $34,000,000
<br />Developer-Planned Equity (Total Cost Less Loan)$7,000,000
<br />October 17, 2018, Work Session – Item 2
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