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APPENDIX C: SYSTEM MODELING <br />TAC created a scenario planning tool to model changes to different aspects of Lane County’s homeless response system and the impact <br />this would have on the number of single adults experiencing homelessness. This system modeling took into account factors such as the <br />number of single adults experiencing homelessness, the amount of resources available within each system component, and the utilization <br />and turnover rate for each of the system components. TAC used the system modeling to refine and “right-size” our recommendations. <br />The tables below outline the current system and three different scenarios created from the system modeling. Data in green indicates a <br />change from the current system. <br />Table 1 shows the current system resource capacity dedicated to single adults and the corresponding utilization rate and turnover rate. <br />Table 2 shows the number of single adults in Emergency Shelter (ES), Transitional Housing (TH), and those living in unsheltered locations. <br />It also presents the monthly number of newly homeless single adults who enter the system for the first time. <br />TABLE 1: CURRENT SYSTEM CAPACITY1 <br />ES TH RRH PSH <br />Individual Beds/Units 364 47 50 407 <br />Utilization Rate 85%92%73%87% <br />Turnover Rate 9%10%11%2% <br />TABLE 2: CURRENT DAILY STAYERS AND THOSE ENTERING HOMELESSNESS2 <br /># of Individuals <br />Emergency Shelter 325 <br />Transitional Housing 31 <br />Unsheltered 1009 <br />Total Literally Homeless 1365 <br />Monthly Newly Homeless into System 130 <br />SCENARIO 1: MAKE NO CHANGES TO SYSTEM CAPACITY <br />ES TH RRH PSH <br />Individual Beds/Units 364 47 50 407 <br />Utilization Rate 85%92%73%87% <br />Turnover Rate 9%10%11%2% <br />SCENARIO 1: IMPACT ON SYSTEM <br />Current System System at 12 months <br />Unsheltered 1009 1092 <br />Total Literally Homeless 1365 1503 <br />Estimated Unmet PH Housing Need 1393 1393 <br />As shown above, if no changes occur to the system, unsheltered homelessness and overall homelessness among single adults will <br />continue to rise due to new people continuing to enter the system and no improvements to system flow to exit people into housing. <br />1 Data on bed/units from 2018 Housing Inventory Chart. Utilization rate and turnover rate provided by Lane County custom report. <br />2 Based on 2018 PIT and analysis of HMIS data. <br />PAGE 26 <br />January 22, 2019, Joint Work Session - Item 1