Agenda Packet 5-13-19 Joint Work Session

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APPENDIX C: SYSTEM MODELING TAC created a scenario planning tool to model changes to different aspects of Lane County’s homeless response system and the impact this would have on the number of single adults experiencing homelessness. This system modeling took into account factors such as the number of single adults experiencing homelessness, the amount of resources available within each system component, and the utilization and turnover rate for each of the system components. TAC used the system modeling to refine and “right-size” our recommendations. The tables below outline the current system and three different scenarios created from the system modeling. Data in green indicates a change from the current system. Table 1 shows the current system resource capacity dedicated to single adults and the corresponding utilization rate and turnover rate. Table 2 shows the number of single adults in Emergency Shelter (ES), Transitional Housing (TH), and those living in unsheltered locations. It also presents the monthly number of newly homeless single adults who enter the system for the first time. TABLE 1: CURRENT SYSTEM CAPACITY1 ES TH RRH PSH Individual Beds/Units 364 47 50 407 Utilization Rate 85%92%73%87% Turnover Rate 9%10%11%2% TABLE 2: CURRENT DAILY STAYERS AND THOSE ENTERING HOMELESSNESS2 # of Individuals Emergency Shelter 325 Transitional Housing 31 Unsheltered 1009 Total Literally Homeless 1365 Monthly Newly Homeless into System 130 As demonstrated in the tables above, the current system resource capacity is not fully utilized and improvements in utilization and turnover (where appropriate) should increase system flow and overall capacity. However, those changes alone will not address the need given the high number of single adults experiencing homelessness. The three scenarios modeled demonstrate the following: 1. Impact on system at 12 months if no changes occur. 2. Impact on system at 12 months if 75 low-barrier ES beds are added. 3. Impact on system at 36 months if 75 low-barrier ES beds added, increased system utilization & turnover occur, diversion strategies implemented, and 350 PSH units added. SCENARIO 1: MAKE NO CHANGES TO SYSTEM CAPACITY ES TH RRH PSH Individual Beds/Units 364 47 50 407 Utilization Rate 85%92%73%87% Turnover Rate 9%10%11%2% SCENARIO 1: IMPACT ON SYSTEM Current System System at 12 months Unsheltered 1009 1092 Total Literally Homeless 1365 1503 Estimated Unmet PH Housing Need 1393 1393 1 Data on bed/units from 2018 Housing Inventory Chart. Utilization rate and turnover rate provided by Lane County custom report. 2 Based on 2018 PIT and analysis of HMIS data. PAGE 26 May 13, 2019, Joint Work Session – Item 1