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Eugene CAP2.0 as related to Climate Recovery Ordinance Targets and Goals <br /> <br />Page 7 <br /> <br />Figure 7 presents projected 2030 Eugene GHGs, post-implementation of HB2020. HB2020 is actively in <br />the legislative process as of this report writing. The introduced text2, and specifically the goals in <br />Section 1, are used to estimate GHG reductions. To estimate reduction for Eugene it is assumed that <br />citizens of Eugene (on a per capita) basis will be required to reduce emissions at the same rate and in <br />the same amount as all other Oregonians towards the goals stated in Section 1 of HB2020. <br />The scaling below may overestimate the mitigation reductions due to assumed electricity emissions <br />reduction potential based on higher statewide electricity emissions than EWEB’s very-low emissions <br />electricity. Alternatively, the Cap and Trade program, could recognize Eugene’s unique lower carbon <br />electricity sector and finance deeper mitigations for transportation than in other communities to ensure <br />the overall reductions per capita are roughly even around the state. <br />Figure 7: Eugene’s 2017 sector-based GHGs and estimated effects in 2030 post-HB2020 implementation. <br />Note: The following figure is meant to provide a sense of scale comparison to show how emissions reductions from <br />HB2020 might impact Eugene’s community emissions. This comparison is preliminary and should not be used for <br />community planning purposes until the final bill language is available. <br /> <br />EXISTING POLICY FORECAST FOR LOCAL+IMPORTED EMISSIONS (CONSUMPTION-BASED) <br />Figure 8 shows Eugene’s 2013 consumption-based emissions of goods and food; projected growth <br />based on 2017 emissions rates and population increases; and forecast reductions from existing, already <br />adopted policy. Note that Figures 3 and 4 (Sector-based) are subsets and included in the consumption- <br />based emissions presented in Figure 7 (Consumption-based). <br /> <br />2 Downloaded 4/2019 from https://olis.leg.state.or.us/liz/2019R1/Measures/Overview/HB2020. <br />0 <br />200,000 <br />400,000 <br />600,000 <br />800,000 <br />1,000,000 <br />1,200,000 <br />2017 2030 BAU <br />w/population <br />increases <br />2030 Forecast <br />with HB2020 <br />Gr <br />e <br />e <br />n <br />h <br />o <br />u <br />s <br />e <br /> <br />G <br />a <br />s <br /> <br />E <br />m <br />i <br />s <br />s <br />i <br />o <br />n <br />s <br /> <br />( <br />M <br />T <br /> <br />C <br />O <br />2 e) <br />May 22, 2019, Work Session – Item 1