Agenda Packet 5-22-19 Work Session

Home Browse Search

APPENDIX B: METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS Large Lever Shareholder Methodology Description Assumptions Existing Policy / Strategy / Action Eugene Water and Electric Board (EWEB) Future Conservation (Energy Efficiency)Energy reduction calculated based on 2017 Annual IERP Update - Figure 1. The Figure shows that EWEB's future conservation will maintain electricity use at current levels through 2035. Roughly a 7% reduction from EWEB's 2017 BAU forecast. GHGs were calculated using both market-based and location-based emissions factors. Market-based factors are provided by Oregon Department of Environmental Quality based on EWEB supply contracts that serve local load for calendar years 2010 - 2016. The average of EWEB's 2010 - 2016 factors are used to project reductions from 2018 - 2030. Location-based factors are taken from U.S. Energy Information Administration's 2017 Annual Energy Outlook - 2050 projections for the Northwest Power Pool regional electricity grid. - The average of EWEB's 2010 - 2016 market-based emissions factors is used to calculate GHG / fossil fuel reductions from future conservation for the years 2018 - 2030. - Fossil fuel factor for EWEB is calculated using the market-based factor (from ODEQ) and an assumption that the electricity is generated 100% from natural gas. ODEQ does not currently provide fossil fuel factors for specific utilitiies, only GHG factors. Operational Climate Action (EWEB-owned buildings and vehicles)EWEB's operational climate goals (50% fossil fuel reduction by 2030, and carbon neutral by 2050) are used in combination with EWEB's 2017 inventory to calculate future emissions reductions. EWEB's most recent GHG inventory shows they are ahead of schedule towards meeting their goals (http://www.eweb.org/Documents/Community/2017-ghg-inventory.PDF) - EWEB achieves goals as written assuming average annual percentage progress towards the goals. - Future reductions exclude those from EWEB's decommissioning of the steam plant as those reductions are already accounted for in the 2017 Eugene Community Inventory. - Future reductions assume EWEB will continue purchaseing low-carbon vehicle fuels at current rates as well as take on additional actions in order to reach EWEB's state fossil fuel and GHG related goals. Northwest Natural Gas (NWNG) Future Conservation (Energy Efficiency)NWNG provided Energy Trust of Oregon reporting on conservation in Eugene for the period 2011 - 2017. Average annual conservation over that period is 214,000 therms per year. This average is applied to the 2018 - 2030 period to estimate additional future conservation. The range over this period was between 100,000 - 380,000 therms. On average ETO efficiency projects serve about 550 residential households, 35 commercial businesses, and 2 large-scale industrial / agricultural customers. ETO savings are assumed to be "cost effective" measures (i.e. those that pay for themselves and save money over the life of the equipment). There are also additional types of future conservation potential assessed by ETO called "achievable" and "technical". ETO's 2014 Resource Assessment is used to estimate additional local conservation resources that are more expensive that the "cost effective" category, but still represent an opportunity to reduce emissions and fossil fuel use. - Assumes future conservation is implemented at a similar rate as the 2011 - 2017 period. - See NWNG's 2018 Integrated Resource Plan for additional details https://www.nwnatural.com/uploadedFiles/NW%20Natural%202018%20IRP.pdf Smart Energy Program (5% participation)2030 maximum reduction GHG / fossil fuel potential is calculated as 5% of annual emissions as projected for 2030. 2030 projected natural gas use is estimated with 2017 community natural gas use data scaled up 1% annually for the period 2018 - 2030 to account for projected population growth. Eugene community natural gas-related GHGs / fossil fuel use are taken from Eugene's 2017 Community Greenhouse Gas Inventory. Population growth projections are taken from Portland State University's Lane County Coordinated Population Forecast, 2015-2065. - Community participation rate is 5% in 2030. This assumption was discussed and agreed upon with NWNG staff for the purpose of the existing policy forecast. Operational Climate Action (5% upstream GHG reduction)NWNG Climate Action Plan / Goal includes actions to plans to reduce upstream leakage of natural gas by 5%. This goal is applied to GHGs/fossil fuel use for the local distribution system as well as for the entire supply chain. Local distribution system loss estimated is reported by NWNG as 0.0061%. As a benchmark EDF User Guide for Natural Gas Leakage Rate Modeling Tool suggests an average value of 0.3% (https://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/US-Natural- Gas-Leakage-Model-User-Guide.pdf). So NWNG's local distribution system has far less leakage than the average. Total natural gas supply chain loss emissions are estimated using factors from ICLEI's U.S. Community GHG Inventory Protocol (i.e. upstream NG emissions are equal to about 12% of tailpipe emissions. 2030 projected natural gas use is estimated with 2017 community natural gas use data scaled up 1% annually for the period 2018 - 2030 to account for projected population growth. Eugene community natural gas-related GHGs / fossil fuel use are taken from Eugene's 2017 Community Greenhouse Gas Inventory. Population growth projections are taken from Portland State University's Lane County Coordinated Population Forecast, 2015-2065. - Upstream emissions are calculated using the rates and sources previously described in methodology. - NWNG 5% planned reduction is assumed to be implemented in equal shares over the period of 17 years, 2019 - 2035. May 22, 2019, Work Session – Item 1