Agenda Packet 5-22-19 Work Session

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Eugene CAP2.0 as related to Climate Recovery Ordinance Targets and Goals Page 4 Figure 3 shows Eugene’s Fossil Fuel Reduction Forecast for 2030 in greater detail than Figure 2. The y- axis minimum is set equal the CRO GHG 2030 Goal (green dashed line). The first bar (grey) shows 2017 Fossil Fuel use (in millions of British thermal units, MMBTU). The second bar (blue) shows the increase of fossil fuel use based on a ‘Business as Usual’ (BAU) forecast of GHGs between 2018 and 2030, which represents the fossil fuel use effect of community population growth. In Eugene population is expected in increase by about 1% annually between 2018 and 2030. The third bar (grey) shows 2030 forecast emissions assuming 2017 GHG rates and additional population. The fourth bar (orange) shows the expected GHG reductions from actions identified through the CAP2.0 process. For details of included actions see Appendix A, Figure 12. The fifth bar (grey) shows the forecast of GHGs in 2030 post CAP2.0 implementation of existing policies. As can be seen, existing CAP2.0 policies are not forecast to achieve CRO fossil fuel use targets. A “gap” remains equal to about 4.4 million MMBTU of fossil fuel energy use. Figure 3: Comparison of actual and forecast fossil fuel use to CRO targets. Figure 4 (next page) shows Eugene’s GHG Reduction Forecast for local, Sector-based GHGs1. The y-axis minimum is set equal to the CRO GHG 2030 Goal. The bars in Figure 4 are the same as Figure 3, except that they represent community GHG emissions instead of fossil fuel use (in metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, MT CO2e). The rates of reduction are different between the Targets (2.5% annually from a 2010 baseline) and the GHG goals (7.6% annually from a 2016 baseline). It’s important to note that because the GHG goals are more aggressive than the fossil fuel targets, and that local sources of GHGs are greater than just fossil 1 For details see Eugene’s 2017 Community GHG Inventory. Eugene’s 2015 Community inventory may be downloaded at https://www.eugene-or.gov/2170/Climate-Recovery-Resources After accounting for population growth and CAP reductions from existing policy – there remains a 4.4 million MMBTU gap between the post-CAP LLS reductions and the CRO Fossil Fuel 2030 Target (green dotted line). May 22, 2019, Work Session – Item 1