Agenda Packet 1-29-20 Work Session

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Technical Analysis e Urban Reserves Technical analysis utilizes four steps to identify: •How much land we need for homes and jobs over the next 50 years; •How much developable land we have for future neighborhoods; and •How many homes and jobs can be accommodated on this land. 1. Establish a Study Area e study area includes land at least one mile from the UGB, except at the McKenzie River and Interstate 5. e study area also includes all lands between the UGB and the Eugene-Springeld Metropolitan Plan boundary. During the suitability analysis it became clear that there was not enough suitable land within the study area for a 30-year Urban Reserve option. At the advice of our technical advisory committee, service providers, and the project management team, the study area was expanded farther west of Eugene near Fisher Road. About 900 acres of land were added to the study area, which now contains almost 27,000 acres, or about 40 square miles. 2. Estimate Future Land Need A land need model was developed to project how much land will be needed to accommodate between 10 and 30 years of population growth beyond 2032. Land need is based on the latest population projections from Portland State University, employment forecasts from the Oregon Employment Department, and policy and density assumptions from the previous Envision Eugene UGB analysis. 3. Estimate the Land Supply A land supply model was developed to categorize all land within the study area into ve general categories: •First, all committed lands were identied: Committed land is devoted to public uses like parks, schools, government oces, cemeteries, and rights-of-way and therefore has no development or redevelopment potential. •Next, all protected lands were identied: Protected land is reserved due to natural resources or natural hazards and therefore is assumed to have no development or redevelopment potential. •en, we categorized the remaining land within the study area into one of the following categories: developed, partially vacant, or undeveloped. Within the study area, there are over 11,000 acres of potentially developable land (e.g. partially vacant and undeveloped), which means roughly 60 percent of the total study area was removed from further analysis. 4. Conduct a Capacity Analysis e capacity analysis combined our land need and land supply results to estimate how many homes or jobs could be accommodated on the developable land in the future by evaluating the slope, elevation, size, and other characteristics of each lot within the study area. Capacity calculations are based upon average densities seen across the city and estimates the average total amount of capacity that is available. www.eugene-or.gov/UrbanReserves ATTACHMENT D January 29, 2020, Work Session - Item 1