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Eugene -Springfield Area Natural Hazards Mitigation Plan 2. Hazard Descriptions 2.3.4 Impacts — Cascading Incidents Civil Unrest Due to misinformation and the chaotic nature of incidents after a major natural disaster, it is difficult to determine the frequency of natural hazard induced civil unrest. One study cites the incidents of hurricane Katrina and the media's role in over broadcasting minor looting or rioting activities giving an impression such actions were prevalent.'8 A study by the University of Otago (New Zealand) determined earthquakes and volcanic eruptions pose the highest risk of civil unrest in areas with income inequality, mixed political regimes, marginalization of certain groups, and when the State's capacity and legitimacy is weakened.19 Figure 4-4 in Section 4 highlights several conditions noted as contributing factors for civil unrest after a natural disaster. History of Impact in Eugene -Springfield There have been no incidents of civil unrest in the aftermath of an earthquake in Eugene or Springfield. While some studies have determined disaster impacted victims respond and adapt well, others have concluded there is a higher chance of violence when certain conditions are met15• 16 Conflicting data and a wide range of contributing factors make it difficult to determine the likelihood of civil unrest occurring in the Eugene -Springfield area after a major earthquake. Despite the difficulties of predicting such an incident, it is safe to assume the area will experience many, if not all, of the contributing factors identified for civil unrest. This could result in anything from small ad -hoc looting incidents to large scale violent civil unrest. Additionally, on multiple occasions riots not associated with a disaster have occurred in Eugene, which indicates the area is already susceptible to such incidents. Risk of Impact Based on historical occurrences of civil unrest after disasters along with our area's societal composition, the risk of an earthquake induced civil unrest incident occurring is moderate. 19 Tierney, Kathleen, Christine Bevc, and Erica Kuligowski. "Metaphors matter: Disaster myths, media frames, and their consequences in Hurricane Katrina." The annals of the American academy ofpolitical and social science 604, no. 1 (2006): 57-81 18 Nel, Philip, and Marjolein Righarts. "Natural disasters and the risk of violent civil conflict." International Studies Quarterly 52, no. 1 (2008): 159-185. 2-11 January 2020