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Eugene -Springfield Area Natural Hazards Mitigation Plan <br />2. Hazard Descriptions <br />2.6.6 Probability of Future Occurrence <br />Current research suggests, the probability of a significant GMD effecting the <br />Eugene -Springfield area is high. In 2012, the probability of a Carrington size GMD <br />hitting Earth in the next ten years was estimated to be 12%.59 <br />2.6.6 Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment <br />Due to the potential size and severity of a GMD, the damages from such an incident <br />could be wide ranging and severe. Eugene and Springfield's vulnerability to a GMD <br />incident is high while capacity to deal with such an incident is low. <br />2.6.7 Risk Assessment <br />Based on the probability of future occurrence, vulnerability, and capacity to deal <br />with a national -scale geomagnetic disturbance, the Eugene -Springfield area's risk to <br />this hazard is categorized as very high. <br />A summary of Impact Risks is in Table 2-7. <br />Table 2-7 Geomagnetic Disturbance - Impact Risks <br />19Kcading Incident <br />Rankin <br />Civil Unrest <br />High <br />Dam or Levee Failure <br />Moderate <br />Epidemic <br />Moderate <br />Hazardous Materials <br />Moderate <br />2.6.8 Existing Hazard Mitigation Activities <br />Geomagnetic disturbances are a new addition to the 2020 NHMP update. Hazard <br />specific mitigation activities have yet to occur. <br />2.7 Landslide <br />In December 2018, the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries <br />(DOGAMI) released a new analysis of landslides in the Eugene -Springfield area <br />titled IMS-60, Landslide Hazard and Risk Study of Eugene -Springfield and Lane <br />County, Oregon (IMS-60)60. Based upon the results of this study, the Steering <br />Committee determined the probability of a landslide is high in Eugene and <br />Springfield and vulnerability to landslide is low in both cities. <br />59 Riley, P. On the probability of occurrence of extreme space weather events. Space Weather 10, <br />S02012, https:Hdoi.org/l0.1029/2011SW000734 (2012). Accessed August2, 2019 <br />60 Oregon Dept. of Geology and Mineral Industries, IMS-60. <br />https://www.oregongeoiogv.org/pubs/ims/p-ims-060.htm. Accessed August 5, 2019 <br />2-43 January 2020 <br />