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7. Context for Setting Targets <br />Targets for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions typically include both a timeline and a <br />volume goal. This analysis has assumed a target year of 2020. Setting the target for a reduction <br />in the volume of greenhouse gas emissions will be the next step in Eugene’s Climate Action <br />Plan. The following table shows three possible targets, the level of GHG emissions required to <br />meet each level and the impact on annual per capita tons of CO2 emissions. <br />Table 1 – Potential 2020 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Targets for Eugene <br /> Total Eugene % Reduction in Per Capita CO2 <br />Target GHG tonnes/yr total GHG emissions tonnes/year <br />Business as Usual 1,528,199 No reduction 8.8 <br />Meet 1990 Levels 911,964 40% 5.2 <br />Kyoto Protocol (7%<1990) 848,127 45% 4.9 <br />Governor’s Task force (10% < 1990) 820,768 46% 4.7 <br />As noted earlier, any goal to reduce GHG emissions below 1990 levels must not only reduce <br />current emissions, but avoid all additional GHG emissions resulting from population growth. <br />Due to the cumulative impact of population growth on total emissions, reducing total emissions <br />from current levels will require a large change in per capita emissions in the future. For <br />example, reducing total community emissions to 1990 levels would require a reduction in per <br />capita emission of 40% by 2020. Meeting the Governor’s Advisory Group on Global Warming <br />target of 10% below 1990 levels by 2020 would result in cutting per capita emissions by nearly <br />50%. <br />Figure 11 below graphically represents the impact of these possible emissions reduction targets <br />on both the total volume of emissions, and on the per capita level of GHG emissions, based on <br />the projected population growth from 2005 to 2020. <br />The need for a large reduction in personal GHG emissions is not immediately obvious, as the <br />1990 per capital level of GHG emissions of 8.1 tonnes per capita in only about 6% lower than <br />the actual 2005 level of 8.6 tonnes per capita. However, population growth since 1990 has <br />increased the total volume of greenhouse gases by a much higher proportion. As GHG reduction <br />targets are typically expressed in terms of reductions in total emissions, the per capita impact is <br />magnified. <br />14 <br />