Item B: Ordinance Concerning Goal 5 Natural Resources Study

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* The table in the technical background report on the impact on the buildable lands entitled "City of Eugene Plan Amendments that Redesignated Land and Affected Buildable Land Inventories" notes that the table that identifies the impact of redesignated land "does not include reductions in the buildable land supply due to legislative rezoning". However, as the background report notes, the Residential Land Study defines residential land as "land that is zoned or designated residential in the Eugene-Springfield UGB". Therefore, legislative zoning changes must also be included in the calculation of the land supply. The zoning changes in the table above only reflect those changes through June, 2000. ** Eugene purchased many acres of principally residential lands for parks after the parks bond measure was passed by the voters in 1998. The number in the table only reflects the amount ofland identified prior to June, 2000. *** The impact on the buildable land supply from the Periodic Review Housing Amendments was not deducted in the Goal 5 analysis because the Housing Amendments are being appealed. However, the impacts should be deducted because they have been adopted by the three jurisdictions. The implementation is delayed by the appeal. To the extent that any surplus oflow density residential land exists, it exists solely on paper. As we have indicated earlier, there are two pieces to the land supply issue - the actual supply of land and the amount of anticipated growth that the supply will accommodate (the demand side ofthe equation). If the amount of demand is underestimated, then it will take a lesser supply to meet the projected need, but more land to meet the actual need. In fact, the demand side was underestimated in several critical . ways. Below are three examples: 1. Single- family detached housing was estimated to represent only 40% of all new construction during the 20-year planning period, even though it had historically represented about 58% of new construction. The LCOG monitoring report indicated that single-family detached homes had represented 57% of new construction between 1995 and 2000. That is consistent with past trends but very inconsistent with the assumptions in the 1999 Residential Lands Study. Single- family detached homes are built at the least density of all housing types. To the extent that single-family detached homes are undervalued in the demand side, the amount of land needed to meet the requirements of single-family detached homes is also underestimated. 2. Eugene assumed that all slopes of 25% or less would be built at the same density for low density residential - 6.9 units per acre. This is density has not been met on flat land, according to LCOG's monitoring report, and has certainly not been met on slopes of 25%. In most cases, that level of density would be in violation of the Eugene code, which often limits density in the South Hills Study to 5 units per net acre.