Item C: Eugene Comprehensive Lands Assessment

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Recommendations for Baseline Assumptions ECONorthwest April 2009 Page 13 idiosyncrasies, such factors that limit development density or footprint (such as a stream). Moreover, it is typical to see cycles in building: for example, a lot of single- family units get built so then a lot of multifamily follows. We think it is more appropriate to look at building trends broadly and on average over a several-year period (e.g., for the entire 2001 to 2008 period) than on a year-by-year basis. Table 3. Dwelling units by type, Eugene city limits, 1990, 2000, and 2007 199020002007New Units 1990-2007 Percent Percent Structure typeUnitsPercentUnitsPercentUnitsPercentUnitsof totalIncrease Single-family detached26,518 55%32,870 54%38,090 55%11,572 55%44% Manufactured Home 2,250 5% 3,281 5% 3,833 6% 1,583 8%70% Duplex (2 units) 2,163 5% 2,426 4% 1,979 3% (184) -1%-9% Single-family attached 3,264 7% 4,011 7% 4,828 7% 1,564 7%48% Tri- & Quad-plex (3 or 4 units) 2,723 6% 3,451 6% 4,794 7% 2,071 10%76% Apartments with 5 to 19 units 6,345 13% 7,538 12% 8,456 12% 2,111 10%33% Apartments with 20 + units 4,728 10% 7,755 13% 6,915 10% 2,187 10%46% Total47,991 100%61,332 100%68,895 100%20,904 100%44% Source: U.S. Census 1990 and 2000, American Community Survey 2007 Note: The decrease in duplex units between 1990 to 2007 may be the result of data anomalies, rather than an actual decrease in duplexes. ? Potential range of assumption: The assumptions of housing mix in the baseline analysis could be taken from the average mix over the 2001 to 2008 period or from the 2007 mix. The mixes are as follows: Mix for housing built from Mix for housing stock in 2001 to 2008 2007 Single-family detached: 64% Single-family detached: 55% Manufactured: 5% Manufactured: 6% Duplex: 3% Duplex: 3% Single-family attached: 10% Single-family attached:7% Tri- & Quad-Plex: 2% Tri- & Quad-Plex: 7% Apt. with 5-19 units: 8% Apt. with 5-19 units: 12% Apt. with 20+ units: 7% Apt. with 20+ units: 10% OAR 660-007 requires that cities of 50,000 or more people in the Metro UGB assume that 50% of new residential construction will be single-family detached housing types (including manufactured housing) and 50% multifamily housing types (including all housing attached housing where each dwelling unit is not on a separate lot). ? CAC and TAC discussion: We are working with the CAC and TAC on assumptions about future mix. Previous discussions with the CAC indicated that some members prefer a mix that assumes about 55% of new housing will be single-family attached, but this issue is not resolved. Additional discussion on this topic will occur at the May CAC meeting.