Item C: Eugene Comprehensive Lands Assessment

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ECLA: Baseline Assumptions ECONorthwest July 2009 Page 3 focused on, is the one related to historical trends and current policies in land use consumption (referred to as scenario). Where there is uncertainty or the baseline reasonable differences of opinions about some of the assumptions that compose the baseline scenario, then the intent is to run some variations on this scenario to test how the need / supply comparison is affected. Those variations will be tested soon, but staff hope to have some direction from City Council that the information presented in this memorandum about the baseline assumptions provides a reasonable foundation from which to build those variations. This memorandum describes the land need based on historical data, which reflect the impact of current policies on development in Eugene. It presents the baseline assumptions based on historical data. Based on the CAC’s and TAC’s discussion of this material the consultant team will (1) do more work to refine the assumptions that define the need side the historical data analysis (ECO), (2) make final adjustments to the buildable lands inventory (LCOG), (3) define reasonable variations on the baseline assumption, and (4) combine the results of steps 1 – 3 to assess whether Eugene has enough land within the UGB to accommodate expected growth, given existing policies. The remainder of this memorandum discusses baseline assumptions in the land needs analysis. For each of the key assumptions it provides some introductory text to explain what the assumption is and how it fits into the needs analysis, and then summarizes information under four headings: ? Potential range of assumption: What is a reasonable, defensible range, and on what basis is that claim made? ? CAC and TAC discussion: What did the ECLA Community Advisory Committee and Technical Advisory Committee have to say about this assumption? ? Current technical recommendation for baseline assumption: Given the previous two points, what is this memorandum recommending as the baseline assumption? ? Data source: More information about the basis for the recommendation.