Item C: Eugene Comprehensive Lands Assessment

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ECLA: Baseline Assumptions ECONorthwest July 2009 Page 6 The bottom lines of Table 2 illustrate an obvious point: if one assumes that there will be a lot less employment growth, then a lot less land will be needed. We are not ready to make a firm statement about whether Eugene has enough land to accommodate expected employment growth because we are still refining the buildable lands inventory. But combining the acreage requirements at the bottom of Table 2 with the draft results of the BLI shows a net deficit of buildable land for commercial land and a surplus for industrial land (but special site needs are considered, which could before lead to a conclusion that the existing UGB lacks sites of a size and location suitable for certain types of employment growth). Those conclusions are only as good as the assumptions they are based on. The origin and assessment of the baseline assumptions in the employment land need estimate in Table 2 are described below. Employment growth Employment growth is the amount of growth in jobs reasonably expected in Eugene over the 2010 to 2030 period. We exclude government employment growth because government land need is accommodated through public and semi-public land needs, evaluated separately. Changes in the forecast of employment growth directly result in changes in need for employment land. There is no single “right” way to forecast employment growth. There are, however, two methods for forecasting employment growth that, independent of their technical merits, are legally sanctioned as “safe harbors”: (1) assume that employment will grow 2 at the same rate as population (OAR 660-024-0040(8)((a)(ii)), or (2) assume that employment will grow at the same rate as the Employment Department’s forecast for Lane County. ? Potential range of assumption: Assuming that employment will grow at the same rate as population (a 0.9% annual growth) results in addition of about 20,000 jobs. Assuming that employment in Eugene will grow at the same rate 3 as the one used in the Employment Department’s forecast for Lane County (a 1.4% annual growth rate) results in the addition of about 34,500 jobs, not including government jobs, which are accounted for in public and semi-public land needs. ? CAC and TAC discussion: Several CAC and TAC members said the assumption that Eugene’s employment will grow at the rate forecasted for Assumptions that serve as amulets that can be raised against the gale of future legal challenges to protect a 2 jurisdiction from being blown out of the water. This assumption is based on the population forecast for the Eugene UGB presented in the “Lane County Rural 3 Comprehensive Plan General Plan Policies 1984”, updated June 2009. Population in the Eugene UGB is forecast to grow at about 0.88% annually.