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Item C: Eugene Comprehensive Lands Assessment
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Item C: Eugene Comprehensive Lands Assessment
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6/9/2010 1:18:49 PM
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7/17/2009 11:16:06 AM
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Agenda Item Summary
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7/22/2009
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ECLA: Baseline Assumptions ECONorthwest July 2009 Page 8 <br />? <br />Current technical recommendation for baseline assumption: We recommend <br /> <br />assuming that the future mix of employment will be similar to or the same as <br />the current mix of employment. The mix of employment forecasted by the <br />Employment Department for Lane County, with greater growth in industrial <br />sectors and decrease in share of commercial sectors, seems unlikely given long- <br />term economic trends and recent economic trends in Eugene and Lane County. <br />Note that the effect of this assumption is diminished to some degree by the fact <br />that the of employment does not change—the changes. <br />amountcomposition <br />Thus, the same number of employees will need built space to work in, which <br />will need land be constructed. The difference is that the density of employment <br />growth will be different for some types of development. But the differences in <br />density among commercial office, retail, and government are relatively small, <br />so shifting among those has little impact on land need. The bigger effect comes <br />from shifts between those categories and industrial, which has lower density. <br />? <br />Data source: The employment base is a point in time estimate for 2006 based on <br /> <br />Quarterly Census of Employment and Workforce from the OR Employment <br />Department and Total Employment in Lane County from the US Bureau of <br />Economic Analysis. <br />New employment accommodated on land not designated for employment <br />Some employment is now accommodated on land that is located in a residential or <br />other non-employment plan designation. In 2006, about 15% of covered employment <br />5 <br />was located in residential and other non-employment designations. This includes <br />businesses located in non-employment plan designations (such as a corner store in a <br />neighborhood) and people working from home. This estimate excludes workers that are <br />not covered by unemployment insurance, such as sole proprietors. Although these <br />workers may be more likely than covered employees to locate on land with non- <br />employment designation, we do not have information about where non-covered <br />workers are located. In the absence of this information, we assumed that covered and <br />non-covered workers will locate on land in non-employment plan designations in the <br />same proportions and that 15% of all employment will locate on land in non- <br />employment plan designations. <br />? <br />Potential range of assumption: There is little information available about the <br /> <br />amount of employment accommodated on land not designated for <br />employment in Eugene, beyond the data reported above. In work for other <br /> <br /> <br /> employment is employment that the state tracks because it is covered by unemployment insurance and <br />Covered <br />5 <br />reported. Covered employment information is available at the city-level. employment, which includes all <br />Total <br />employment, is tracked by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and is not available at the city-level. Comparison of <br />covered and total employment in Lane County showed that covered employment was 75% of total employment in <br />the County in 2006.Covered employment excludes sole proprietors and other workers not covered by unemployment <br />insurance. <br /> <br /> <br />
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