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ECLA: Baseline Assumptions ECONorthwest July 2009 Page 10 <br />? <br />Current technical recommendation for baseline assumption: We recommend <br /> <br />assuming that 10% of new employment will locate in existing built space. <br />? <br />Data source: ECONorthwest has typically assumed that about 10% of <br /> <br />employment would locate in existing built space for similar studies in other <br />cities. The rationale for this assumption is: (1) in the short-term, commercial <br />vacancy rates are likely to be higher than normal (because of the current <br />recession) and (2) existing firms have a large incentive to accommodate new <br />employees in their existing offices because of the cost of moving and leasing <br />additional office space. <br />New employment accommodated through redevelopment <br />Goal 9 strongly encourages cities to develop policies to encourage redevelopment of <br />commercial and industrial land, especially brownfields. Redevelopment is <br />any <br />development that happens on land that has been classified as developed (i.e., not <br />vacant). This definition is consistent with the definition of developed land in OAR 660- <br />009. <br />For the purposes of this study, we define redevelopment as development that (1) <br />occurs on land with existing development, (2) results in a net increase in <br />and <br />employment density. The second condition means that the replacement of a building <br />used for employment by a new building with similar employment density would not be <br />counted as redevelopment. This definition includes infill on partially vacant land. <br />We can see that redevelopment has occurred in Eugene over the last 20-years. Retail <br />redevelopment is especially common, such as the redevelopment that has occurred <br />along Coburg Road, like Oakway Center. We can reasonably assume that some <br />employment growth will be accommodated through redevelopment of existing <br />commercial and industrial land over the next 20-years. <br />Determining how much redevelopment has actually occurred is difficult because data <br />about redevelopment (or indicators of redevelopment) are not maintained. While the <br />City collects data for industrial and commercial building permits, there is no way to <br />determine which if these permits was issued for redevelopment of a site, short of <br />sorting through the permits one-by-one. We could estimate redevelopment using <br />assumptions about land value and potential to redevelopment (a method that is similar <br />to the method describe for residential redevelopment in Appendix C), this methodology <br />provides a gross indicator of redevelopment potential but little indication of how much <br />redevelopment is to occur over the planning period. <br />likely <br />As a result, we do not have a factual basis to estimate the amount of employment <br />growth that may be accommodated through redevelopment. In previous studies <br />conducted by ECONorthwest and other organizations, redevelopment has been <br />addressed by assuming that a certain percentage of employment growth will be <br /> <br /> <br />