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Item C: Eugene Comprehensive Lands Assessment
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Item C: Eugene Comprehensive Lands Assessment
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6/9/2010 1:18:49 PM
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7/17/2009 11:16:06 AM
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7/22/2009
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ECLA: Baseline Assumptions ECONorthwest July 2009 Page 21 <br />? <br />Potential range of assumption: The assumptions of housing mix in the baseline <br /> <br />analysis could be taken from the average mix over the 2001 to 2008 period or <br />from the 2007 mix. The mixes are as follows: <br />Mix for housing built from Mix of housing stock in <br />2001 to 2008 2007 <br />Single-family detached: 64% Single-family detached: 55% <br />Manufactured: 5% Manufactured: 6% <br />Duplex: 3% Duplex: 3% <br />Single-family attached: 10% Single-family attached:7% <br />Tri- & Quad-Plex: 2% Tri- & Quad-Plex: 7% <br />Apt. with 5-19 units: 8% Apt. with 5-19 units: 12% <br />Apt. with 20+ units: 7% Apt. with 20+ units: 10% <br />OAR 660-007 requires that cities of 50,000 or more people in the Portland <br />Metro UGB assume that 50% of new residential construction will be single- <br />family detached housing types (including manufactured housing) and 50% <br />multifamily housing types (including all housing attached housing where each <br />dwelling unit is not on a separate lot). Although OAR 660-007 does not apply <br />to Eugene (because the City is not in the Portland Metro UGB), this rule does <br />illustrate the housing mix that cities in the Metro UGB are expected to achieve. <br />? <br />CAC and TAC discussion: Discussions with the CAC indicate that they favor <br /> <br />assuming that the housing mix that Eugene will achieve over the planning <br />period is the mix for Eugene’s housing stock in 2007. CAC members are <br />concerned that the housing mix achieved over the 2001 to 2008 period was <br />anomalous, with development of more single-family detached housing than <br />Eugene can reasonably expect over the next 20 years. CAC members generally <br />agreed that future housing mix will more closely resemble the mix of the City’s <br />housing stock. <br />? <br />Current technical recommendation for baseline assumption: We recommend <br /> <br />basing Eugene’s forecasted housing mix on the mix of housing stock in 2007. <br />? <br />Data source: The assumption about housing mix could be based on <br /> <br />development trends over the 2001 to 2008 period, based on LCOG GIS data <br />and City of Eugene Planning Department’s building permit data. <br />Alternatively, assumption about housing mix could be based on the housing <br />mix for Eugene’s housing stock, shown in point in time estimates for 1990, <br />2000, and 2007 from the U.S. Census. <br /> <br /> <br />
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