Item C: Eugene Comprehensive Lands Assessment

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ECLA: Baseline Assumptions ECONorthwest July 2009 Page 40 confusion about what is possible, practical, and required for an evaluation of redevelopment. A few CAC members preferred that redevelopment be estimated on a tax-lot basis: this got referred to at CAC meetings as a supply-side approach to redevelopment. ECO and City staff met with Paul Conte, a CAC member and advocate of this method, at the end of June to clarify the option. All parties generally agreed that: 28 ? It would be desirable that any method used to make estimates of future redevelopment have some empirical basis, and one derived from the experience of the City of Eugene would be preferable. In other words, it would be desirable to have some information about the historical rate of redevelopment in Eugene. ? Per the discussion of definitions above, a desirable measure of residential redevelopment would be the number of dwelling units built on land that was (i.e., was not classified as vacant). already classified as developed ? If one had a measure of the of redevelopment for some historical period, amount then one could convert that amount to some type of in several different rate ways. One way would be to divide the amount of dwellings considered to be redevelopment by the total number of dwelling units built for the same period. That is what ECO did in its previous report (and what has been referred to as a demand-side treatment of redevelopment), estimating that between 11% and 14% of all housing units built between 2001 and 2008 could be classified as redevelopment. Alternatively, one could divide the same estimate of 29 redeveloped dwelling units by some measure of the total (theoretical) capacity of Eugene’s developed land to accommodate greater density. Such a measure would say something like “between 2001 and 2008 Eugene used X% of the theoretical capacity of its developed residential land.” That is more of a supply- side ratio. ? The request by some CAC members for a more detailed supply-side analysis of redevelopment is a request that the likelihood of redevelopment over the 20- not year planning period be estimated for every developed tax lot in Eugene, or that some analysis be done to define and identify a subset of specific developed tax lots that have a “strong likelihood” of redevelopment. Such an analysis would be expensive, speculative, and beyond what has been done in any other Oregon planning exercise that we know of. Paul Conte sent a memorandum describing his proposed methodology in detail on July 7, 2009. We are still 28 reviewing the details he proposes. Based on the methods he discusses, it seems that there is general agreement about the logic, data, and methods for doing the redevelopment analysis the way that ECO has proposed. As noted later in this memorandum, because we have changed (improved) the definition of redevelopment as 29 part of work subsequent to making that calculation, those estimates change a little, but in concept they are calculated the same way.