Item A: Eugene Comprehensive Lands Assessment

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ECLA: Baseline Assumptions ECONorthwest July 2009 Page 11 addressed through redevelopment, generally from 5% to 20% of new residential development. 6 ? Potential range of assumption: We found no studies or data that attempt to estimate the amount of commercial and industrial infill and redevelopment that occurred in Eugene over the past decade. It is clear, however, that infill and redevelopment occurred, especially along Coburg Road. A 2002 study in the Portland Metro area suggest that about 26% of employment land would be accommodated through redevelopment over the 2002-2022 period. 7 ? CAC and TAC discussion: CAC and TAC have not discussed this assumption in great enough depth to have suggestions for different assumptions from more than one committee member. One TAC member suggested that the most appropriate places for redevelopment is in mixed use centers and downtown. ? Current technical recommendation for baseline assumption: Our preliminary recommendation is to assume redevelopment of 10% of forecast industrial employment, 15% of commercial employment, and 35% of retail employment. ? Data source: No data about commercial and industrial redevelopment is currently available. Employment density Employment density is the density of employment (measured in employees per acre) locating in commercial and industrial plan designations. Forecasting employment land need based on forecasts of employment growth requires a conversion, either explicit or implicit, of employment growth (number of new employees) to land need based on assumptions about employment density. This can be accomplished through use of assumptions about the number of employees per acre (EPA). In 2006, Eugene’s overall employment density was 22 employees per acre. Employment densities in Eugene varied by use and mixture of uses, as follows: ? Industrial densities ranged from about 5 employees per gross acre (EPA) in heavy industrial areas to nearly 20 EPA in light or campus industrial. ? Commercial densities varied from 30 EPA in mixed retail and office sites to 93 EPA in downtown. ? Retail densities varied from about 20 EPA to about 37 EPA at Oakway Center. ECONorthwest used this method in studies for the following cities: Ashland, McMinnville, The Dalles, 6 Pendleton, Ontario, and Sandy. Metro uses a “refill”rate to account for employment accommodated through redevelopment. In Metro’s 2002 Urban Growth Report, they assumed a refill rate of about 26% for commercial and industrial lands. Metro’s “2002-2022 Urban Growth Report: an Employment Land Needs Analysis,” December 2002. Accessible 7 from http://library.oregonmetro.gov/files/ugr-employment.pdf