Item A: Eugene Comprehensive Lands Assessment

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ECLA: Baseline Assumptions ECONorthwest July 2009 Page 13 Work with other cities has shown similar net to gross factors. ECO typically assumes a net to gross factor of 15% to 20% for employment lands. ? CAC and TAC discussion: CAC and TAC did not provide comments on the net-to-gross factor. ? Current technical recommendation for baseline assumption: We recommend assuming a 20% net-to-gross factor for commercial land need, based on the assumption that future commercial employment will be in areas more like community retail centers and less like Downtown. These areas will need less land for public rights-of-way. We recommend assuming a 15% net-to-gross factor for industrial land need, which is consistent with observed need for public rights-of-way in industrial areas in Eugene. ? Data source: The net-to-gross factors are based on data from the 2006 Quarterly Census of Employment and Workforce from the OR Employment Department and City of Eugene Plan Designations. This assumption is generally consistent with the assumptions in the MetroPlan about land needed for public rights-of- way. 2.2 R:B ESIDENTIAL LAND NEED ASELINE ASSUMPTIONS The analysis of residential land need is driven by an analysis of housing need. The housing needs analysis must meet the State requirements of Goal 10, ORS 197.296, and OAR 600-008. The framework for conducting the housing needs analysis is described in detail in the memorandum to the CAC “Framework for Determining Land Needed for Housing in Eugene: 2010-2030” (February 5, 2009). This section discusses the baseline assumptions necessary for determining the amount of land needed for housing over the 20-year planning period. Table 3 shows land need using for two variations of housing need: (1) using the housing mix from housing development over the 2001 to 2008 period and (2) using the housing mix for Eugene’s housing stock in 2007. Based on the assumptions used in Table 3, Eugene will need between approximately 2,400 to 2,500 acres of residential land. Key assumptions in Table 3 are still under discussion, such as the rate of redevelopment. In addition, the categories of housing type are also under discussion (see page 20 of this memorandum) and may change in subsequent analysis. We are not able to determine whether Eugene has enough land to accommodate expected residential growth yet. Based on the preliminary results of BLI, it is likely that Eugene does not have enough residential land to accommodate expected growth given the assumptions in Table 3.