Item A: Eugene Comprehensive Lands Assessment

Home Browse Search

ECLA: Baseline Assumptions ECONorthwest July 2009 Page 17 ? Current technical recommendation for baseline assumption: We recommend assuming that 5.3% of Eugene’s 2030 population (1,870 people) will live in group quarters. ? Data source: The assumption about population in group quarters is based on the share of Eugene’s population in group quarters in 2007 according to the U.S. Census, American Community Survey, 2007. This assumption considers long-term trends in share of population in group quarters in 1990, 2000, and 2007, based on U.S. Census data in those years. Persons per household In 1990, traditional families (married couple, with one or more children at home) accounted for 25% of all households in Oregon. In 2007 that percentage had dropped to 20%. Consistent with that trend, the average household size has decreased over the past five decades and is likely to continue decreasing. The average household size in Oregon was 2.60 in 1980, 2.52 in 1990, and 2.51 in 2000 and 2.49 in 2007. One and two person households made up the majority of Oregon households in 1990. The direct impact of decreasing household size on housing demand is that smaller households means more households, which means a need for more housing units even if population were not growing. Average household size in Eugene followed the same pattern as the State: household sizes have decreased. In 1990, the average household had 2.30 persons per household, dropping to 2.27 in 2000, and 2.25 persons per household in 2007. OAR 660-024 established a “safe harbor” assumption for average household size—which is the figure from the most recent Census. ? Potential range of assumption: We could assume that household sizes will change over the planning period or we could use the safe harbor and assume that household sizes will continue at 2.25 persons per household. The historical change in household size in Eugene over the last quarter- century is a relatively slow decrease: from 1980 to 2007 the average annual rate of decrease was on the order of 1/10 of 1% per year. If Eugene’s household th size continues to decrease, Eugene will need more dwelling units than the current forecast projects to accommodate Eugene’s expected population growth. Trends in student housing suggest that Eugene’s household size may increase slightly over the planning period. One type of student housing that has been built more frequently in Eugene are large units with five or more bedrooms and shared common space and kitchen facilities. These dwellings are most common in neighborhoods near the University and may have five or more students living in them. While it seems that the market for this type of housing is limited by student housing demand and student housing preferences,