Item A: Eugene Comprehensive Lands Assessment

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ECLA: Baseline Assumptions ECONorthwest July 2009 Page 21 ? Potential range of assumption: The assumptions of housing mix in the baseline analysis could be taken from the average mix over the 2001 to 2008 period or from the 2007 mix. The mixes are as follows: Mix for housing built from Mix of housing stock in 2001 to 2008 2007 Single-family detached: 64% Single-family detached: 55% Manufactured: 5% Manufactured: 6% Duplex: 3% Duplex: 3% Single-family attached: 10% Single-family attached:7% Tri- & Quad-Plex: 2% Tri- & Quad-Plex: 7% Apt. with 5-19 units: 8% Apt. with 5-19 units: 12% Apt. with 20+ units: 7% Apt. with 20+ units: 10% OAR 660-007 requires that cities of 50,000 or more people in the Portland Metro UGB assume that 50% of new residential construction will be single- family detached housing types (including manufactured housing) and 50% multifamily housing types (including all housing attached housing where each dwelling unit is not on a separate lot). Although OAR 660-007 does not apply to Eugene (because the City is not in the Portland Metro UGB), this rule does illustrate the housing mix that cities in the Metro UGB are expected to achieve. ? CAC and TAC discussion: Discussions with the CAC indicate that they favor assuming that the housing mix that Eugene will achieve over the planning period is the mix for Eugene’s housing stock in 2007. CAC members are concerned that the housing mix achieved over the 2001 to 2008 period was anomalous, with development of more single-family detached housing than Eugene can reasonably expect over the next 20 years. CAC members generally agreed that future housing mix will more closely resemble the mix of the City’s housing stock. ? Current technical recommendation for baseline assumption: We recommend basing Eugene’s forecasted housing mix on the mix of housing stock in 2007. ? Data source: The assumption about housing mix could be based on development trends over the 2001 to 2008 period, based on LCOG GIS data and City of Eugene Planning Department’s building permit data. Alternatively, assumption about housing mix could be based on the housing mix for Eugene’s housing stock, shown in point in time estimates for 1990, 2000, and 2007 from the U.S. Census.