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The Register-Guard http://www.registerguard.com/ GUEST VIEWPOINT: Eugene’s choice of right housing mix can help the recovery BY ED MCMAHON Sunday Published: ,Jul 3, 2011 05:01AM It’s hard not to notice the world of difference between the housing-led recoveries that consistently have pulled the economy out of recessions for decades and the economic recovery we are experiencing today. Anemic job creation, slow and vacillating economic growth, sagging consumer confidence — it’s painfully evident by now that something has gone wrong with a recovery that barely feels like a recovery at all. So maybe it’s encouraging, even if it’s a bit late, that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and a growing number of other leaders in Washington are starting to make the connection between a languishing housing industry and a recovery that just can’t work up a good head of steam. But the truth of the matter is that little has been done to address the issues preventing housing from getting back on its feet. It’s frustrating that not enough thought has been given to housing lately — not only because housing can provide the boost the economy so sorely needs, but also because Americans value it highly. In a recent national survey conducted on behalf of the National Association of Home Builders by leading political pollsters Lake Research Partners and Public Opinion Strategies, three-quarters of the 2,000 people likely to vote next year who responded were bullish about home ownership even considering market fluctuations, and 73 percent of those who do not currently own a home said owning is one of their goals. Among younger voters who are most likely to be shopping for housing in the next few years, home ownership was valued even more. The NAHB economists estimate that the recession has created a lag of 2 million household formations as individuals doubled up with friends and family until conditions improve. Looking at the demographics, a record number of Americans moving into their 20s and 30s will need places to live, starting out with rentals and then moving into homes they own. That’s not even the whole picture — leaving out aging baby boomers and immigrants — but it suggests a powder keg of housing demand that can emerge quickly if government policies move in the right direction. Building to that demand would provide just the lift the economy needs. Federal Bureau of Economic Analysis data show that building 100 average single-family homes generates more than 300 jobs, $23.1million in wages and business income and $8.9million in taxes and revenue for local, state and federal governments. And there’s a tremendous ripple effect from there. Is Eugene going to be ready to benefit from the pent up housing demand? That question will be answered in the near future when the Eugene City Council votes on a housing mix. The suggested housing mix being presented to the council ranges from 55 percent to 60 percent single family detached housing, and 45 percent to 40 percent multifamily housing. It has been established that 15,000 dwelling units will be needed for the 20-year planning period. Depending on the housing mix, the need for single family detached housing will range from 6,000 to 9,000 units. Hopefully the council will decide on a minimum of 60 percent single family detached housing and 40 percent multi-family housing mix, which would mean building an average of approximately 450 single family detached housing units per year. That would be far below what we’ve experienced in the past. Eugene averaged 773 single family detached housing units per year from 1990 through 2007. A 60 percent single-family and 40 percent multi-family mix represents a 59 percent decrease from historical trends.