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%XXEGLQIRX& Planning & Development Planning Division City of Eugene th 99 W. 10 Avenue Eugene, Oregon 97401 (541) 682-5377 (541) 682-5572 FAX www.eugene-or.gov M EMORANDUM ĂƚĞ͗June 6, 2012 dŽ͗Mayor and City Council &ƌŽŵ͗Jason Dedrick, Associate Planner and Emily Jerome, Deputy City Attorney ^ƵďũĞĐƚ͗ Envision Eugene: Follow-up on Employment Growth Rate from Council Work Session This memorandum responds to a question raised at the May 30, 2012 Work Session regarding the employment growth rate that is proposed for use in Envision Eugene. The employment growth rate that the City utilizes for the next twenty years is a factor in determining how many jobs we must plan for as part of Envision Eugene. Unlike our determination regarding housing units, there is no adopted forecast that dictates the number of jobs we must accommodate. One important resource is the most recent forecast for Lane County from the Oregon Employment Department. Published in late 2011, this forecast for the 2010-2020 period predicts that job growth will be 1.7% in Lane County. This is in line with the pre-recession forecast for the 2008-2018 period which predicted job growth of 1.4%. These forecasts are for all of Lane County and are only for the first ten years of our planning period. However, they are the only forecast information of this type that are available. A considerable amount of staff and Technical Resource Group (TRG) time was devoted to utilizing this and other information to determine a reasonable estimate for employment growth for the Eugene UGB over the twenty year planning period. Some of the information that was discussed by the TRG included the following: The employment growth rate in Eugene from 1986-2010 was 1.4%. Employment growth in Eugene is typically higher than population growth, resulting from the fact that many people work in Eugene but live elsewhere. Population is forecasted to grow at 0.9%. Oregon Employment Department staff have indicated that the most recent Lane County, 10-year forecast (1.7%) is higher than the long term average on the assumption that jobs will grow at a faster rate in the ten years following the recession, but will likely grow at a slower rate in the long term. An employment growth rate of 1.4% is equal to employment growing at the forecasted rate for Lane County for the first ten years and at a rate slightly higher than the population growth rate for the second ten years.