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HomeMy WebLinkAboutItem A: Sustainability Commission Recommendations ECC UGENE ITY OUNCIL AIS GENDA TEM UMMARY Work Session: Sustainability Commission Recommendations Meeting Date: October 8, 2008 Agenda Item Number: A Department: City Manager’s Office Staff Contact: Felicity Fahy www.eugene-or.gov Contact Telephone Number: 682-5017 ISSUE STATEMENT The Sustainability Commission is proposing its first set of policy recommendations to the City Council to enable the City organization and community to operate more sustainably. The commission requests that the council pursue and approve these recommendations. BACKGROUND Introduction In January 2007, the council adopted the Sustainability Initiative Goal to develop the Office of Sustainability and the Sustainability Commission to support sustainable practices and businesses producing sustainable products and/or employing sustainable practices. The council adopted Ordinance No. 20379 in February 2007, establishing the Sustainability Commission as a policy advisory body to the council and City Manager to assist in the development of programs to create or enhance sustainable practices within the community. The Sustainability Commission is charged with advising the council on policy matters related to: sustainable practices; businesses that produce sustainable products and services; City building design and infrastructure; and related issues that directly affect sustainability efforts considered by the City Council. On May 8, 2008, the council adopted the Sustainability Commission’s work plan. The work plan outlines a framework of eight broad priority issues organized into three main component areas: internal City operations, community, and education and outreach. The commission is currently researching some of the issues identified before recommending specific actions to the council. However, the Sustainability Commission believes that there are several issues with sufficient information to support the policy recommendations detailed below. Since its first meeting on November 28, 2007, the commission has received a variety of reports, presentations and public testimony regarding many of the proactive policies and positive actions being implemented across Eugene, Portland and other communities nationwide. In addition, the commission has reviewed and discussed a range of social, economic and environmental issues that pose a variety of complex and interconnected threats to our local, regional and global well-being. Throughout commission deliberations there has been a palpable sense of urgency from members of the commission and the community regarding the serious and imminent nature of these threats. The 2007 Community Survey results also reflect the need and desire for more action from the City on sustainability issues. When asked how important it was to them that the City engage in environmentally sustainable practices Z:\CMO\2008 Council Agendas\M081008\S081008Aand attA.doc over three quarters (76%) of respondents selected 4 or 5 (on a scale where 5 is very important and 1 is not important). However only 43% selected 4 or 5 (on a scale where 5 is excellent and 1 is poor) when asked to rate the City performance employing such practices. In short, while there is much for Eugene to be proud of and celebrate related to our sustainability efforts to-date, many of the challenges we face require a radical and immediate departure from our current methods of operation and decision- making. Immediate Action Subcommittee On May 21, 2008, the Sustainability Commission created a subcommittee tasked with developing a set of recommendations to present to the council as soon as possible. Specifically, the commission directed the subcommittee to (1) review the Sustainable Business Initiative Task Force (SBI) Report, the Portland Peak Oil Task Force Report “Descending the Peak: Navigating the Transition from Oil and Natural Gas” (PPOR) and requests for action brought before the commission by the public, and (2) prepare a package of recommendations for the commission to forward to the council for consideration. In addition to reviewing the documents and information described above, the subcommittee also received staff briefings on the City’s sustainable procurement policy (related to SBI Recommendations 5 and 6) and the City’s waste assessment and reduction efforts (related to SBI Recommendation 7). The full commission received a staff briefing on the community greenhouse gas inventory, completed in July 2007. The subcommittee met four times over a six-week period. Recommendations The Immediate Action Subcommittee identified seven recommendations and numerous individual example actions that the council could consider. The commission identified the recommendations below as being the highest priority at this time. The remaining recommendations for immediate action, which focus on food security, the availability and cost of oil, building efficiency and waste management will be brought to the council later this fall. In addition to these recommendations, the commission has included a list of “example actions” as Attachment A. The commission’s intent in including this list is to offer solutions that can be immediately championed by individual councilors, the City Manager, or staff as appropriate. Recommendation 1 Climate Change has been identified as an important issue by the Sustainability Commission. The SBI report and many other scientifically reputable reports find that the observable rise in global temperature can be linked to a similar rise in human-induced greenhouse gas emissions. The SBI report concludes that proactively addressing climate change through mandatory reductions in greenhouse gas emissions a and specifically carbon emissions will have positive economic, social and environmental impacts on our community. The City has been very proactive in reducing its carbon emissions in a number of significant ways including through active energy management, use of hybrids in the City fleet, capture and use of methane at the wastewater treatment plant and providing free bus passes to employees. The City has just completed updating a greenhouse gas inventory for City operations. A summary of initial findings as included as Attachment B. The final report will be completed by late October 2008. The report findings include that emissions have remained the same from 2000 to 2005 despite the increase in City employees and services provided to the community. However, the City still produces significant volumes of greenhouse gas throughout its operations. A specific emissions reduction goal and a coordinated City approach will enhance the internal effort to decrease emissions and identify additional ways to ensure wise use of resources. a Carbon is a shortened form of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions. All greenhouse gases including carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and others can be described in terms of carbon dioxide equivalency, the amount of CO2 that would have the same global warming potential, when measured over a specified timescale (generally, 100 years). Z:\CMO\2008 Council Agendas\M081008\S081008Aand attA.doc Based on its review of the SBI report and other relevant information, the commission recommends that immediate action to further reduce the amount of carbon generated by City of Eugene facilities and operations is needed. Therefore the commission recommends the following: The City of Eugene shall formally adopt the following goal and annually report to the Sustainability Commission on progress made to reach the goal: All City-owned facilities and City operations shall be “carbon neutral” (i.e. shall reduce net carbon emissions to zero, or if that is not possible, cancel all remaining emissions through the b funding of approved local offset mechanisms or the purchase of approved offsets) by 2020. Recommendation 2 While City facilities and operations contribute to local carbon emissions, their collective impact at the community, metro and regional level is of far greater significance. The City, in conjunction with several community partners, completed a Eugene Community Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Report in July 2007. The August 2007 memo to the council and Inventory Report is included as Attachment C. The “next steps” section of the August 2007 memo to the council noted it was vital to have in-depth discussions with community members and local agencies in order to identify reduction strategies and ways to get there. While the commission recognizes that the City is limited in its jurisdictional authority to regulate outside its boundary, it also recognizes that Eugene must be a leading participant in moving our region toward carbon neutrality. While Eugene has relatively low carbon emissions compared with many other North American cities, much of that is due to the excellent work of EWEB to provide us with primarily low carbon emission hydro and wind power and their focus on energy conservation since the 1970s. However, based on the review of the SBI report and other relevant information, the commission has determined that immediate action to develop a community climate action plan, including a community carbon emission reduction goal is needed. Therefore the commission recommends the following: The City of Eugene shall, in conjunction with a wide variety of community partners: Develop a community climate action plan within 18 months that will (1) set a carbon emission reduction goal and establish targets for achieving that goal; (2) identify strategies to achieve those targets; (3) identify necessary adaptations;, (4) develop measures for tracking success, and (5) include periodic progress reports back to the community with annual reports of progress to the Sustainability Commission. RELATED CITY POLICIES The Sustainability Commission recommendations build on and add detail to the sustainability-related policies the council has previously adopted, including in particular Resolution No. 4618, which outlines a definition and statement of intent regarding the application of sustainability principles to the City of b (1) Carbon emissions of City facilities and operations shall be defined as all Scope I and Scope II emissions as defined by the General Reporting Protocol of The Climate Registry. (2) The policy shall prioritize the reduction of City emissions at source, then funding of offset-style local mitigation (i.e., carbon/ greenhouse gas-reducing) projects over the purchase of offsets from projects that do not result in decreased local emissions or increased local carbon sequestration. Any selected local mitigation project shall consider and address the major concerns of national and global markets for offsets, including but not limited to additionality, permanence, leakage, monitoring and verification, double counting, and transparency. Z:\CMO\2008 Council Agendas\M081008\S081008Aand attA.doc Eugene, and affirmed the commitment of City elected officials and staff to uphold these principles. The recommendations are also in alignment with the council approved Sustainable Initiative Goal action plan. COUNCIL OPTIONS The council may: 1. Approve the Sustainability Commission recommendations 2. Approve the recommendations with changes 3. Request changes to the recommendations before approval CITY MANAGER’S RECOMMENDATION The City Manager recommends Option 1, approval of the Sustainability Commission recommendations. SUGGESTED MOTIONS Recommendation 1: Move to direct the City Manager to formally adopt the goal of making all City-owned facilities and City operations carbon neutral by 2020. Recommendation 2: Move to direct the City Manager to develop a community climate action plan within 18 months, that will (1) set a carbon emissions reduction goal and establish targets for achieving that goal; (2) identify strategies to achieve those targets; (3) identify necessary adaptations; (4) develop measures for tracking success, and (5) include periodic progress reports back to the community with annual reports of progress to the Sustainability Commission. ATTACHMENTS A.Example Actions to Implement Recommendations B.City of Eugene Internal Operations Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory: Summary of Initial Findings (September 2008) C.August 2007 Memo to Council and Eugene Community Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Report (July 2007) FOR MORE INFORMATION Staff Contact: Felicity Fahy Telephone: 682 5017 Staff E-Mail: felicity.m.fahy@ci.eugene.or.us Z:\CMO\2008 Council Agendas\M081008\S081008Aand attA.doc ATTACHMENT A Example Actions to Implement Recommendations In addition to the primary recommendations included in the AIS, the commission has included the following list of “example actions,” to support the recommendations. These suggestions are not inclusive of all possible actions, but rather the commission’s intent is to offer suggestions of some ways to consider implementing the recommendations. These recommendations could also be used by community groups, business leaders, other public agencies and members of the public to incorporate sustainability efforts into their own business and personal activities. The following example actions are presented for consideration by the council and staff: Recommendation 1 The City shall formally adopt the following goal: All City-owned facilities and City operations shall be “carbon neutral” (i.e. shall reduce net carbon emissions to zero, or if that is not possible, cancel all remaining emissions through the funding of approved local offset mechanisms or the purchase of approved offsets) by 2020. Example action: ? Prioritize and fully fund the development and implementation of the internal climate action planning process currently underway. Recommendation 2 The City of Eugene shall, in conjunction with a wide variety of community partners: Develop a community climate action plan that will (1) set a carbon emission reduction goal and establish targets for achieving that goal;, (2) identify strategies to achieve those targets;, (3) identify necessary adaptations;, (4) develop measures for tracking success, and (5) include periodic progress reports back to the community. Example actions: ? Identify new (or re-envisioned) funding sources for alternative transportation projects. ? Formally adopt a community-wide “no idling” policy and encourage other jurisdictions to do the same. ? Dedicate funds to improving bike and pedestrian accessibility: Develop more safe bike zones. o Improve biking safety corridors to schools. o ? Install round-abouts instead of stop signs at new intersections (to reduce use of brakes). ? Create incentives for businesses to provide bus passes for employees. Z:\CMO\2008 Council Agendas\M081008\S081008Aand attA.doc Attachment B City of Eugene Internal Operations Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory: Summary of Initial Findings (September 2008) – included separately for you to attach Attachment C August 2007 Memo to Council and Eugene Community Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Report (July 2007) – included separately for you to attach, thanks. Z:\CMO\2008 Council Agendas\M081008\S081008Aand attA.doc ATTACHMENT B City of Eugene Internal Operations Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory: Summary of Initial Findings (Sept. 08) 1. Introduction In concert with the values of environmental stewardship held by the community of Eugene, the City organization has implemented numerous internal resource conservation programs. These efforts have resulted in reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Examples of these initiatives include ongoing efficiency upgrades at the wastewater treatment plant, use of alternative fuels and hybrid vehicles and a long-term energy management program for City buildings. The City of Eugene has completed inventories of both internal and community-wide GHG emissions since 2005. This report is the final piece of the initial quantification phase and completes the work begun with the preliminary internal inventory undertaken in 2005 with the assistance of University of Oregon students, continued with the Community GHG Inventory and now completed with this detailed assessment of emissions from City operations. The Sustainability Commission has identified climate change as an important issue and one of the top priorities. The Sustainable Business Initiative (SBI) report concludes that proactively addressing climate change through mandatory reductions in greenhouse gas 1 emissions and specifically carbon emissions will have positive economic, social and environmental impacts on our community. This inventory provides the information necessary for the preparation of an internal city operational climate action plan. 2. Key Findings The inventory of greenhouse gas emissions from City operations includes a 1990 estimate based on limited data, and calculated figures for the years 2000 and 2005. The most striking finding of the analysis is that, after total emissions increased about one-third between 1990 and 2000, there has been no growth – and actually a slight decline - in GHG emissions between 2000 and 2005 (see graph on page 2). In other words, City operations have succeeded in arresting growth of GHG emissions over the last five years. This is especially impressive in the face of continued growth of City services. The amount of GHG emissions per City employee has decreased by 4.7% between 2000 and 2005. This has been achieved primarily with substantial investment in efficiency upgrades and hybrid vehicles, and a change to the use of partially bio-based fuels. While 1 Carbon is a shortened form of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions. All greenhouse gases including carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and others can be described in terms of carbon dioxide equivalency, the amount of CO2 that would have the same global warming potential, when measured over a specified timescale (generally, 100 years). 1 the City’s achievement in “capping” the growth in GHG emissions is a great start, the City will need to be very proactive to meet Kyoto Protocol targets or other selected goals. Total Emissions, Employees and Population/100 1990, 2000 & 2005 15,0002,000 1,900 12,500 11,129 11,147 1,800 Employees and Population/100 1,700 Metric Tonees of CO2 10,000 8,403 1,600 7,5001,500 1,400 5,000 1,300 1,200 2,500 1,100 01,000 1990199520002005 Total Emissions# of EmployeesPopulation/100 The inventory of internal GHG emissions shows which activity sectors and energy types within City operations are the largest emissions sources. For both the 2000 and 2005 years, the activity sector (see graph on page 3) with the largest emissions impact has been building use (46% of emissions in 2005), followed by the city’s vehicle fleet (35%) and then employee commute (15%). The energy source (see graph on lower page 3) with the largest emission impact, for both years studied, has been gasoline (36% in 2005 for fleet and employee commute combined), followed closely by natural gas (25%). 2 City of Eugene GHG Emissions from Internal Operations by Activity Sector 2000 & 2005 50.0% 40.0% Percent of GHG Emissions 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% BuildingsVehicle FleetEmployeeStreetlightsWater/SewageWaste Commute -10.0% 20002005 City of Eugene GHG Emissions from Internal Operations by Source 2000 & 2005 30.0% Percentage of Total Emissions 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Gas - Empl. CommuteNatural Gas EWEB SteamPaper Products ElectricityPlant Debris Food Waste Gas - FleetWood/Textiles Diesel (ULSD) Diesel Biodiesel (B-20) -5.0% 20002005 3 A third way to evaluate GHG emissions is by their “scope”, defined by the degree of direct or indirect control an entity has over the emissions related to its activities. According to the ICLEI (Local Governments for Sustainability) Draft Local Government Operations Protocol, Scope 1 includes all direct GHG emissions such as vehicle fuels and natural gas in buildings, excluding CO2 emissions from biomass combustion; Scope 2 includes indirect GHG emissions related to the consumption of electricity, steam, heating, or cooling energy purchased from a third party or utility, amd Scope 3 includes all other indirect emissions not covered in Scope 2, i.e. upstream and downstream sources outside the City’s direct control to manage. It is expected that future reporting required under both ICLEI and the Climate Registry will be based on the concept of “Scope,” with GHG emissions levels and targets expressed in terms of Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions. For the City of Eugene’s operations, GHG emissions in Scope 1 include natural gas used in buildings, and for wastewater treatment and all fuels used in the vehicle fleet – biodiesel, diesel, ULSD and gasoline. Scope 2 emissions include electricity for buildings, streetlights and signals, and wastewater treatment, as well as EWEB steam used in City buildings. Scope 3 emissions include gasoline from employee commuting, and waste products produced by City operations including paper, plant debris, food waste and wood/textiles. As shown in the graph on page 5, Scope 1 is the largest contributor of GHG emissions for the City. This category increased from 55% of total emissions in 2000 to 60% in 2005. Natural gas used in City buildings and gasoline consumed by fleet vehicles are the largest emission sources within this category for both years. Scope 2 emissions, primarily electricity and steam purchased from EWEB, declined from 34% of total emission in 2000 to 28% in 2005. Scope 3 emissions - primarily related to employee commute and solid waste from City operations - increased from 11% of total City emissions to 12% from 2000 to 2005. 4 City of Eugene GHG Emissions from Internal Operations by Scope 2000 & 2005 70.0% 60.2% 54.6% % of GHG Emissions 60.0% 50.0% 34.5% 40.0% 28.2% 30.0% 20.0% 11.6% 10.9% 10.0% 0.0% Scope 1Scope 2Scope 3 20002005 3. Concluding Remarks The inventory of the City’s internal GHG emissions provides the foundation for an operational climate action plan. The next steps in the process are to adopt an emissions reduction goal, define emissions reduction targets, quantify the relative impacts of existing efforts and develop specific strategies to achieve these targets. While the magnitude of the City’s operational emissions is small in comparison to the community- wide emissions, it is critical that the City provide leadership by demonstrating both commitment and workable strategies within our own operations. When combined with a climate action plan for the community, the City of Eugene’s internal plan will help form a comprehensive strategy for local climate action. 5 Central Services Facility Management City of Eugene 210 Cheshire M Eugene, Oregon EMORANDUM 97401 (541) 682-2690 (541) 682-6222 FAX www.eugene-or.gov Date: August 2, 2007 To: Eugene Mayor Piercy and City Council From: Glen Svendsen, Division Manager Subject:Eugene Community Greenhouse Gas Inventory Local governments are increasingly playing a key role in the development and implementation of local measures to prevent climate change and reduce global warming. Eugene is one of some 600 cities that have signed the U.S. Mayor’s Climate Protection Agreement. As the first step to developing local strategies for climate change initiatives, the City has completed an inventory of greenhouse gas emissions (attached) within the Eugene urban growth boundary. Background To help carry out this effort, the City has joined the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI) “Cities for Climate Protection” program, which provided a framework for completing the emissions inventory. The ICLEI framework, used by over 200 US communities, also provides a model for developing a climate action plan. Eugene’s greenhouse gas emissions inventory will provide a basis for developing and then evaluating community-wide greenhouse gas reduction strategies. The development of the greenhouse inventory was guided by a consortium of local agencies that are also pursuing green house gas reduction initiatives. This inter-agency steering group, comprised of EWEB, Lane Community College, Lane Council of Governments, Lane County Solid Waste, Lane Regional Air Pollution Authority, Lane Transit District, Northwest Natural Gas, School District 4j, the City of Springfield and the University of Oregon reviewed the City’s approach to developing the community- wide greenhouse gas inventory and the findings of the inventory. Greenhouse Gas Inventory The community-wide inventory of greenhouse gas emissions provides baseline information on past, current and projected emissions levels. The community’s emissions for 1990 and 2005 have been calculated. Emissions for the year 2020 have been projected based on current population and business growth estimates. The inclusion of a “business as usual” scenario for the year 2020 provides a benchmark against which the future impact of emissions reduction strategies can be measured. The inventory focuses on greenhouse gas produced within Eugene, including electricity, natural gas, and other minor fuel sources such as wood fiber and heating oil. The impact of gasoline and diesel fuel used Page 1 of 2 in trips made by residents and businesses within Eugene is also included. The inventory does not include the energy embedded in consumer goods and food imported into Eugene from outside the metro area or in the transportation of goods into Eugene. The impacts of through travel on I-5 are also not included. Key Findings The inventory shows the source of local greenhouse gas emissions in terms of both economic sectors (residential, commercial, industrial and transportation activities) and fuel sources for 1990, 2005 and 2020. Currently, the transportation sector contributes one-half of the community’s greenhouse gas emissions. Transport is expected to account for one-half of the Eugene area emissions in the future, even with the projected benefits of nodal development and the extension of LTD’s EMX system. The residential and commercial sectors each contribute about 20% of total greenhouse gas emissions, and the industrial sector is responsible for the remaining 10% of emissions. Natural gas used in the residential, commercial and industrial sectors is the fastest growing source of greenhouse gas emissions. Emissions from natural gas are likely to increase from about 30% of total emissions in 1990 to 40% of emissions in 2020. By 2020, natural gas and transportation fuels are projected to account for about 90% of Eugene’s total community-wide greenhouse gas emissions. Electrical generation accounts for only 11% of Eugene’s total greenhouse gas emissions, reflecting EWEB’s reliance on hydroelectric power and renewable energy sources. Statewide, electrical generation accounts for 42% of Oregon’s total greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels. Partly due to EWEB’s “clean” energy, Eugene’s per capita emissions are relatively low, at 8.6 metric tonnes in 2005, compared to a statewide average of 16.6 metric tonnes in 2000. While the level of per capita emissions in Eugene is projected to grow moderately from 8.1 metric tonnes in the baseline year 1990 to 8.8 metric tonnes in 2020, the total volume of greenhouse gas emissions community wide will have increased by two-thirds. This increase is due primarily to the growth in Eugene’s population. This is significant, in that emissions reductions goals are usually expressed in terms of reductions in total greenhouse gas emissions, rather than per capita emission levels. This magnifies the impact of reduction strategies when they are converted to per capita emissions measures. For example, reducing community-wide greenhouse gas emissions just to 1990 levels by the year 2020 would require a 40% reduction in per capita emissions, from a projected level of 8.8 metric tonnes, down to 5.2 metric tonnes per capita. Next Steps Strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have the potential to impact a broad range of personal choices and economic decisions, and deserve significant public involvement. It is vital to have in-depth discussions with community members as well as partner with local agencies in order to discuss options and develop strategies to reduce greenhouse emissions. Once the Sustainability Commission is formed, this inventory will be presented to the group as the starting point in discussions on the need to develop a comprehensive community climate action plan for Eugene. For more information on the Eugene community-wide greenhouse gas inventory, contact Glen Svendsen, Facility Division Manager, at 682-5008 or by email to glen.l.svendsen@ci.eugene.or.us For information on the City’s overall sustainability program, contact Felicity Fahy, Sustainability Manager, at 682-5017 or by email to: felicity.m.fahy@ci.eugene.or.us Page 2 of 2 CITY OF EUGENE Eugene Community Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Report óÈÑÄ  Ý·¬§ ±º Û«¹»²» Ý»²¬®¿´ Í»®ª·½»­ Ú¿½·´·¬§ Ó¿²¿¹»³»²¬ Ü·ª·­·±² îïð ݸ»­¸·®» ߪ»²«» Û«¹»²»ô ÑÎ çéìðï Ю»°¿®»¼ ¾§ Ô§²²» Û·½¸²»®óÕ»´´»§ Ù´»² ͪ»²¼­»² Community Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory Prepared by the City of Eugene July, 2007 Page 1.Introduction 1 2.Executive Summary 1 3.Methodology Overview 2 4.Key Findings 3 5.Analysis of Inventory Findings 5 5.1 Results by Sector 5 5.2 Results by Source 9 5.3 Results Combined by Sector and Source 11 6.Putting It All Together 12 7.Context for Setting Targets 14 8.Other Considerations 15 9.Strategic Implications 16 10. Next Steps 16 11. References for Further Information 16 Appendix 1: Data Sources and Detailed Methodology by Emissions Source 17 Appendix 2: Summary of Data Inputs to CACP software 22 Eugene’s Community Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory 1. Introduction The community of Eugene has a long history of environmental stewardship. The City organization has historically implemented programs which have had the consequence of reducing greenhouse gas emissions in addition to their intended goal, such as the Transportation Options program, solid waste reduction and recycling or the energy management program. The City of Eugene completed a preliminary inventory of the City’s own operational greenhouse gas emissions in April 2005, with the assistance of graduate students from the U of O Planning, Public Policy and Management Program. The issues surrounding global warming have provided the impetus for broadening the City’s internal efforts to look at the community-wide issue of climate change. In March 2006, the City of Eugene joined over 200 U.S. cities in becoming a member of the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives, or ICLEI. Membership in ICLEI affords local governments a cost-effective way to build internal expertise for continuing climate change work. This community greenhouse gas inventory was initiated in August 2006 based on experience gained from the City’s of Eugene’s internal inventory and with the training, technical assistance and software available to ICLEI members. The inventory of community-wide greenhouse gas emissions is the first step in developing Eugene’s climate action plan. This inventory provides the basis for completing other elements of a climate action plan, including the selection of an emissions reduction target and development of specific strategies to achieve emissions reductions. When completed, the climate action plan will serve as the foundation for Eugene’s ongoing efforts to reduce emissions, and provide the basis for measuring progress and improving reduction strategies in the future. This inventory presents a picture of Eugene’s current greenhouse gas emissions, and is not intended to introduce the issue of climate change. Some references to general information on global warming and climate change are included at the end of this report. A more complete discussion of the impact of global warming on Eugene, and individual measures to respond to climate change, will be included in the final climate action plan. 2. Executive Summary Eugene’s 2005 community-wide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are estimated at approximately 1.25 million metric tonnes, or 8.6 metric tonnes per capita. (A metric “tonne”, which is approximately 2,200 pounds, is used in this inventory to be consistent with standard practice.) This total is projected to increase to 1.5 million metric tonnes by 2020. This closely matches population growth, and annual per capita emissions are projected to reach 8.8 metric tonnes in 2020. Eugene has a relatively low level of per capita emissions compared to Oregon and the nation. Eugene’s 2005 per capita emissions are one-half of the statewide average per capita emissions, and about two-fifths of the national per capita emissions. Eugene’s relatively low level of GHG emissions, due primarily to our “clean” electrical energy, will influence the 1 future selection of GHG reduction strategies. Many approaches considered in other communities are focused on their source of electrical energy, and may not be the best measures for Eugene. Over half of the community’s current GHG emissions are related to the use of gasoline (41% of total emissions) and diesel fuel (11%). The next largest source of GHG emissions is from the use of natural gas, which accounts for 37% of total emissions. Electrical energy contributes 11% of community-wide GHG emissions. Remaining GHG sources are less than 1% of the total. Combined residential, commercial and industrial transportation activities within Eugene create over half of total community emissions. Residential activities are the next largest source of GHG emissions at 22% of total emissions, due primarily to the use of natural gas as a source for heating and water heating. Commercial activities account for 17% of total GHG emissions, again related primarily to the use of natural gas. Industrial activities contribute only 10% of the community’s GHG emissions, again related to natural gas usage in industrial processes and space heating. Understanding the overall mix of Eugene’s greenhouse gas emissions provides information on the relative importance of different activities as sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Knowing the specific sources and activities related to GHG emissions in the community will establish a basis for selecting emissions reduction strategies. 3. Methodology Overview Eugene’s community-wide inventory followed the protocol developed by ICLEI and the authors of the Clean Air and Climate Protection (CACP) software. Data was gathered from five sectors that produce the majority of community-level emissions: residential energy, commercial energy, industrial energy, transportation and waste. Utility level energy data and community wide figures for transportation and solid waste disposal were collected from numerous sources (see Appendix 1). Where necessary, data was either projected back in time (a method called backcasting) or estimated using the best available information. The CACP software converts all data to the equivalent value in CO2 (eCO2) in order to compile the information. The focus of the inventory of community greenhouse gas emissions is on activities that directly produce greenhouse gas emissions, or on the direct consumption of energy. It is these types of local activities that can most effectively be addressed by community-level emissions reductions strategies, and progress toward reduction targets most directly measured. As a result, the methodology used for this inventory does not currently include energy embedded in consumer goods from outside the community, nor does it include the potential for capture and storage of carbon by living plants (called biomass sequestration). In the transportation sector, through- trips, such as on I-5, and local trips without an origin or destination in Eugene are also not included in the inventory. Two small emissions sources, wood burning and fuel oil, were included because of significant issues with particulate pollution and significant change in use, respectively. 2 Boundaries for the inventory were chosen to correspond, for the most part, to the boundaries of Eugene Water and Electric Board’s (EWEB) territory. EWEB’s service area roughly matches the Eugene portion of the Metro Plan boundaries. River Road/Santa Clara and the Blachly Lane service territory along Hwy 99, south of Awbrey Lane, were also included. The year 1990 was chosen as a baseline year in order to be consistent with the climate goals of the State of Oregon and many other US cities. This also allows us to comply with the spirit of the Kyoto Protocol, as recommended by the US Mayor’s Climate Protection Agreement. Mayor Kitty Piercy is a signatory of the Agreement. An interim year, 2005, was chosen to provide a snapshot of the current emissions situation and allow quantification of reduction measures undertaken after 1990. The target year of 2020 for this inventory is within the planning horizon of most local agencies. This enables the model to use reasonable and existing growth projections, yet still allows sufficient time to implement significant emissions reductions measures. The projections for 2020 were done with a “business-as-usual” scenario. Any emissions reduction measures or programs that are currently in existence or are already included in agencies’ growth projections are therefore included in the base case 2020 scenario. For instance, nodal development and continued expansion of the bus rapid transit system are included in the community vehicle-miles-traveled “business as usual” projections for 2020. 4. Key Findings The growth in GHG emissions from 1990 levels to 2005 was approximately 38%. Projected growth of GHG from 2005 to 2020 is estimated at 21.4%. Total growth in emissions from the base year of 1990 to the target year of 2020 is projected to be two-thirds higher than total 1990 emissions. It’s important to note that any goal to go below 1990 levels must not only reduce current emissions, but avoid all additional GHG emissions resulting from population growth. Figure 1 below shows the growth in total GHG emissions and population for Eugene from 1990 to 2005 and projected to 2020. 3 While overall emissions increased 38% from 1990 to 2005, per capita GHG emissions in Eugene have increased only 6% between 1990 and 2005. This means that the rate of growth in total emissions has been primarily due to the growth in total population from 1990 to 2005. However, per capita GHG emissions are projected to rise at about the same rate through 2020, based primarily on the increased use of natural gas as an energy source. Eugene’s 2005 per capita emissions are one-half of the statewide 2000 average per capita emissions, and about two-fifths of the national 2000 per capita emissions, as shown in Figure 2 below. This difference may be due to a combination of EWEB’s comparatively clean power mix, which emits about one-tenth of the greenhouse gas per megawatt hour of the Oregon power grid average emissions, and the limited scope of economic activity covered in the community greenhouse gas inventory. As the community greenhouse gas inventory focuses primarily on emissions generated within Eugene, the “embedded” green house gas emissions of imported goods and materials are not included in Eugene’s inventory. (Theoretically, the emissions related to imported goods would be counted in those communities where the manufacturing takes place.) The Oregon and United States GHG emissions estimates encompass a broader range of economic activities, including manufacture and transport of goods across the State and the nation. More analysis of the comparison of the GHG emissions in goods exported from and imported to Eugene is needed to determine what adjustment, if any, should be made to Eugene’s per capita GHG estimate. City staff has recommended to Oregon Department of Energy and ICLEI researchers that this is an area needing an accepted protocol. Figure 2 - PerCapitaEmissions Eugene, State of OregonandUS 25.0 20.6 20.0 16.6 15.0 10.0 8.8 8.6 8.1 5.0 - Eugene1990Eugene2005Eugene2020Oregon 2000US 2000 (Source of Oregon and US data: Oregon Strategy for Greenhouse Gas Reductions, December, 2004 ) 4 5. Analysis of Inventory Findings The results of the community GHG emissions inventory can be analyzed by the type of activity contributing to greenhouse gases, and by the energy source that creates those emissions. Both types of analysis can be used in the development of GHG reduction strategies. The next sections provide a more detailed view of Eugene GHG emissions data by activity, by fuel source, and finally by fuel source within each activity sector 5.1 Results by Sector All economic sectors show growth in the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 through 2020, with the exception of solid waste. As noted above, this growth parallels the growth in Eugene’s population. The following charts show the relative impact of the five economic sectors over the period included in the model. The transportation sector is the largest component of Eugene’s greenhouse gas emissions, projected to increase to almost 800,000 metric tonnes by 2020 (Figure 3). The transportation sector includes the greenhouse gas emissions due to the residential, commercial and industrial vehicle use within Eugene, based on computer modeling of vehicle miles traveled by each type of activity. Emissions related to residential and commercial structures are the next largest contributors to Eugene’s greenhouse gas emissions, projected to reach about 350,000 metric tonnes and nearly 300,000 metric tonnes respectively by 2020. The industrial sector produces the least greenhouse gas emissions, projected at about 170,000 metric tonnes in 2020. Figure 3 - EugeneCommunityGreenhouseGasEmissions by Sector 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 - (100,000) 199020052020 ResidentialCommercialIndustrialTransportationWaste 5 The waste sector is considered in the model as providing carbon storage. This phenomenon is explained by the multiplication effect of methane and the long-term capture and storage, or sequestration, of a portion of the total waste. Organic matter that decomposes without oxygen, or anaerobically, will form methane, a greenhouse gas 21 times more potent than COIf the 2. methane is not captured or burned, landfills are net sources of greenhouse gas emissions. However, up to 80% (based on OR DEQ figures) of the methane formed at the Short Mountain site is captured and burned to produce energy, which converts it back to the less potent CO The 2. net result is that a little bit more carbon equivalent is buried and trapped in the landfill than is added to the atmosphere. This does not mean that creating additional garbage is part of the solution. It does underscore the fact that the capture and use of methane is a very effective strategy that is already in place, and needs to be maintained or expanded. Also, this model of estimating greenhouse gas emissions does not recognize the benefits of recycling. Recycling both reduces the total amount of solid waste and reduces the “upstream” production of greenhouse gas emissions related to goods and materials manufactured outside of Eugene. As this inventory captures only energy generated or consumed directly by the community, the role of recycling as an emissions reduction strategy needs to be evaluated in other ways. While total GHG emissions are projected to increase, the emissions from some activity sectors will increase faster than others. The relative impact of the transportation sector has decreased from 1990 to 2005 in spite of continued growth in vehicle miles traveled (VMT). This trend is expected to continue through 2020. Residential and commercial sector emissions impacts have increased, in relation to those from transportation, primarily due to the continued fuel-switching from electric to natural gas for heating. The following graphs (Figure 4) show the relative contribution of the five economic sectors to community greenhouse gas emissions over the thirty-year period. Figure 4 – Eugene Community Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 1990, 2005 and Projected 2020 1990EugeneGHGEmissions 2005EugeneGHGEmissions Waste Waste 0% 0% Residential Residential 20% 22% Commercial 13% Transportation Transportation Commercial 51% 58% 17% Industrial 9% Industrial 10% 6 2020EugeneGHGEmissions - Projected Waste 0% Residential 22% Transportation 50% Commercial 18% Industrial 10% Within the transportation sector, residential trips make up the majority of emissions related to vehicle travel. (Figure 5)Using the Lane Council of Government's regional transportation model of vehicle travel miles, Figure 5 was derived from the estimated average school-in-session weekday trips that originate from a Eugene residence, as well as from trips that are not based on household activity but that have a Eugene origin or destination including commercial vehicle trips. Of these trips, home to work trips account for about 19% of Eugene-related vehicle miles traveled (VMT). Home based non-work trips make up 36% of VMT, and includes trips made for home to school, home to shopping, home to college, and home to recreation, sports and other purposes. Non-home based trips account for about 32% of the vehicle miles traveled. These are trips initiated by drivers from a Eugene origin and by trips ending at a Eugene destination and include service trips such as mail deliveries, garbage pickup, meter reading, as well as work to shop, work to meals, and college to work trips. Commercial trucking accounts for the remaining 13% of vehicle miles traveled from or to a Eugene location. Figure5-EugeneVehicleMilesTraveledin2002by TypeofTrip 13% 19% AllHome-BasedWork VehicleTrips AllHome-BasedNon-Work VehicleTrips AllNon-HomeBasedVehicle 32% Trips AllCommercialVehicleTrips 36% 7 Eugene’s pattern of emissions due to fossil fuels is significantly different from the State of Oregon as a whole, as shown in Figure 6. This may mean that the most effective strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions related to fossil fuels are different for Eugene than those being developed for Oregon or the nation. As noted earlier, Eugene’s pattern of emissions from fossil fuel, dominated by vehicle transportation emissions, reflects this community’s relatively clean electrical power. The transportation sector’s share of GHG emissions in Eugene is quite large at 51% in 2005 compared to 38% for Oregon overall. This is due to the relative lack of GHG emissions from electrical generation in Eugene with the exceptionally clean power that EWEB delivers. As shown later, the higher representation of the residential and commercial sectors is due predominately to use of natural gas. Figure 6 – Fossil Fuel Equivalent C02 Emissions by Sector in Oregon and Eugene Eugene2005CO2Emissions Oregon2000CO2Emissions Electricity 11% Electricity 42% Residential Transportation 18% 38% Transportation 52% Commercial 14% Residential Industrial Industrial 5% Commercial 12% 5% 3% Source of Oregon data: Oregon Strategy for Greenhouse Gas Reductions, December, 2004 Comparing Eugene’s 2005 per capita emission levels by sector with the 2000 statewide per capita emissions highlights key differences (Figure 7). This view shows Eugene’s overall lower level of GHG emissions from fossil fuels, and Eugene’s dramatically lower level of GHG emissions related to electrical energy. While transportation accounts for the largest proportion of Eugene GHG emissions, the per capita level of GHG emissions of transportation fuels is significantly lower than the statewide average. Since Eugene’s community inventory only counts travel with an origin or destination within Eugene, the statewide emissions figures may be more comprehensive, as the state includes more inter-city and through traffic, especially within the I-5 corridor. 8 Figure7-ComparisonofOregon2000and Eugene2005PerCapitaGHGEmissionsfrom FossilFuels 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 TransportationElectricityResidentialCommercialIndustrial OregonEugene Eugene’s low level of emissions due to electrical generation reflects EWEB’s predominant use of hydroelectric power, compared to the state as a whole, and EWEB’s long-term emphasis on conservation, with an aggressive conservation program in place since 1976. EWEB has stated that growth in electrical demand has been met through a combination of clean energy and conservation for the past decade, limiting the need to purchase electrical power generated from fossil fuel sources. Conservation can play an important role in reducing the per capita level of greenhouse gas emissions, and can help offset overall emissions that are expected to increase with population. 5.2 Results by Source To be most effective, greenhouse gas reduction strategies need to reflect the major energy sources producing emissions, and identify those energy sources that are most likely to respond to change strategies. Figure 8 below shows the relative change in the source of GHG emissions in Eugene over the inventory period. An important finding from this analysis of the source data is the shifting role of natural gas. In 1990, natural gas is responsible for less than a third of Eugene’s emissions. By 2005, emissions from natural gas are nearly equal to those of gasoline. Projected emissions for 2020 show that natural gas will be the largest share of Eugene’s eC02 emissions given a “business-as-usual” scenario. As previously noted, unlike other areas of Oregon or the nation, electricity is a relatively minor source of greenhouse gas emissions in Eugene. 9 Figure 8 – Eugene Community Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Energy Source, 1990, 2005 and Projected 2020 Eugene1990GHGbysource Eugene2005GHGbysourc Electricity Electricity Diesel Diesel 11.0% 10.2% 10.5% 11.6% NaturalGas FoodWaste FoodWaste 29.6% 0.2% NaturalGas 0.3% 37.3% Fuelwood Fuelwood 0.2% 1.0% LightFuelOil 1.0% LightFuelOil HeavyOil 0.3% 0.1% Gasoline Gasoline HeavyOil 40.4% 46.2% 0.0% Eugene2020GHGbysource Electricity Diesel 10.4% 10.4% FoodWaste 0.2% NaturalGas Fuelwood 40.2% 0.1% LightFuelOil Gasoline 0.1% 38.6% HeavyOil 0.0% While natural gas is projected to take the lead in eCO2 emissions in Eugene by 2020, gasoline has been and will remain a consistently large emissions source. Emissions from gasoline are currently the leading source of CO2 in the community. Emissions reduction strategies that target either overall quantity of gasoline used, or the type of vehicle fuels, will likely figure prominently in a Eugene climate action plan. 10 Woodburning contributes very minimally to the GHG emissions of the community of Eugene. The CO2 coefficient for burning fuelwood is generally considered to be zero. Carbon released from burning wood cycles in and out of the atmosphere very quickly when viewed on the geologic time-scale of the carbon contained in fossil fuel. It is generally thought that the equivalent amount of carbon released by burning is entirely re-sequestered in growing plant material, assuming that the ability of vegetation to perform this task is remaining stable. Though there is ongoing debate about the sequestration ability given the changing nature of forest and vegetation, for this inventory we have accepted the assumption in the ICLEI model of a net zero GHG impact of woodburning. It is recommended that future updates of this inventory investigate the role that significant changes in the area or quality of mature vegetated landscapes may play in overall atmospheric GHG levels. Although woodburning is not a significant contributor to CO2 in the atmosphere, it does contribute substantially to other forms of pollution in Eugene. While this report does not address the relative criteria air pollutants (CAP’s) of fuel sources, they should be considered an important factor in the step of choosing GHG reduction strategies. Overall health of the environment may not be improved by simply trading one impact for another. Future updates of the inventory will include CAP information in an appendix. 5.3 Results Combined by Sector and Source The following figures show the source of GHG emissions by the four primary activity sectors for 2005. Understanding the relationship between different economic sectors and their individual sources of GHG emissions will help in developing emissions reduction strategies. The following figures show the source of GHG emissions by economic sectors for 2005. (Solid waste was treated in the ICLEI model as a separate GHG emissions source, and is not included below as it was shown as reducing overall Community GHG emissions.) In the residential sector, natural gas is the predominant GHG source, accounting for 83% of residential GHG emissions. (Figure 9a) Electricity is a distant second, at only 15% of residential emissions. (Note that the total energy consumed is different from the GHG emissions due to these energy sources. Natural gas accounts for just under 60% of residential energy consumption, while electricity amounts to about 40% of total residential energy consumption.) The relatively low amount of residential GHG emissions from reflects EWEB’s relatively clean power sources. Light fuel oil and wood are minor sources of residential GHG emissions. Residential light fuel oil use has decreased since 1990 due to switching to electricity or natural gas, and the proportion of GHG due to fuel oil is expected to decline further in the future. The source of GHG emissions for the commercial sector is very similar to the residential sector, with natural gas at 83% of total commercial GHG emissions. (Figure 9b) Electrical consumption accounts for 17% of GHG emissions, and fuel oil less than 1% of commercial emissions. 11 Fig. 9a - Residentialsector 2005 Fig. 9b - CommercialSector 2005 Electricity Electricity 15% Fuelwood17% (Air Dry) Light 1% FuelOil Light 0% FuelOil 1% NaturalGas NaturalGas 83% 83% The emissions profile of the industrial sector is almost evenly split between natural gas and electricity. (Figure 9c) Since electricity has a much lower level of emissions per unit, this means that the predominant source of energy for the industrial sector is electricity. Electrical use in the industrial sector is almost twice the use of natural gas, which helps keep the GHG emissions from the industrial sector relatively low. In the transportation sector, the sources of GHG emissions are gasoline and diesel fuel, with gasoline accounting for about 80% of the transportation sector’s total GHG emissions. (Figure 9d) Fig. 9c - IndustrialSector 2005Fig. 9d - TransportationSector 2005 Diesel 21% Electricity 48% NaturalGas 52% Gasoline 79% 6. Putting it All Together Understanding the overall mix of Eugene’s greenhouse gas emissions provides information on the relative importance of different activities as sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Knowing the specific sources and activities related to GHG emissions in the community will establish a basis for selecting emissions reduction strategies. Figure 10 below shows the composition of Eugene’s greenhouse gas emissions by activity sector and energy source. 12 The transportation sector’s use of gasoline and diesel fuels dominates the current GHG emissions signature of Eugene. The next highest contributions to Eugene’s emissions are the residential and commercial use of natural gas. These four components will need to be a major focus of GHG reduction strategies for significant reduction to occur in the overall level of GHG emissions in Eugene. Given the extremely low impact of electricity on Eugene’s GHG footprint, it will be challenging, but important, to maintain the low emissions levels related to electrical generation as demand for electricity increases or if use of electrical energy instead of other forms of energy is encouraged as a strategy. Figure10-2005EugeneCommunity-Wide CO2EmissionsbyEconomicSectorand FuelSource Residential Residential NaturalGas, Electricity,3% 18% Commercial Electricity,3% Transportation Gasoline,40% Commercial NaturalGas, 14% Industrial Electricity,5% Transportation Diesel,11% Industrial AllOther NaturalGas, Sources,1% 5% 13 7. Context for Setting Targets Targets for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions typically include both a timeline and a volume goal. This analysis has assumed a target year of 2020. Setting the target for a reduction in the volume of greenhouse gas emissions will be the next step in Eugene’s Climate Action Plan. The following table shows three possible targets, the level of GHG emissions required to meet each level and the impact on annual per capita tons of CO2 emissions. Table 1 – Potential 2020 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Targets for Eugene Total Eugene % Reduction in Per Capita CO2 Target GHG tonnes/yr total GHG emissions tonnes/year Business as Usual 1,528,199 No reduction 8.8 Meet 1990 Levels 911,964 40% 5.2 Kyoto Protocol (7%<1990) 848,127 45% 4.9 Governor’s Task force (10% < 1990) 820,768 46% 4.7 As noted earlier, any goal to reduce GHG emissions below 1990 levels must not only reduce current emissions, but avoid all additional GHG emissions resulting from population growth. Due to the cumulative impact of population growth on total emissions, reducing total emissions from current levels will require a large change in per capita emissions in the future. For example, reducing total community emissions to 1990 levels would require a reduction in per capita emission of 40% by 2020. Meeting the Governor’s Advisory Group on Global Warming target of 10% below 1990 levels by 2020 would result in cutting per capita emissions by nearly 50%. Figure 11 below graphically represents the impact of these possible emissions reduction targets on both the total volume of emissions, and on the per capita level of GHG emissions, based on the projected population growth from 2005 to 2020. The need for a large reduction in personal GHG emissions is not immediately obvious, as the 1990 per capital level of GHG emissions of 8.1 tonnes per capita in only about 6% lower than the actual 2005 level of 8.6 tonnes per capita. However, population growth since 1990 has increased the total volume of greenhouse gases by a much higher proportion. As GHG reduction targets are typically expressed in terms of reductions in total emissions, the per capita impact is magnified. 14 8. Other Considerations This analysis is based on the GHG emissions due to activities within the community. As noted earlier, the “upstream” energy required to both manufacture and transport consumer goods made outside the community, but consumed within Eugene, are not included in this inventory. While reductions in consumer goods transported over long distances could reduce GHG emissions elsewhere, this would not be reflected as a reduction of GHG emissions within Eugene in the current inventory methodology. Although reducing consumption of imported goods and increased recycling of consumer waste are not directly measured within this “community” GHG emissions inventory, strategies encouraging purchasing goods with recycled content, buying locally, and reducing packaging in consumer goods still have environmental benefits on a wider scale. The scope of this inventory focuses on community-wide levels and sources of greenhouse gas emissions from different economic sectors and fuel sources. However, there are a number of other factors that could be considered when establishing greenhouse gas reduction targets and action strategies. For example, fuel sources vary in their emission of other pollutants - such as nitrogen and sulfur compounds - and the release of airborne particulates that have negative 15 environmental impacts. Awareness of these other factors when designing GHG reduction strategies will help avoid unintended environmental consequences. The broader social and economic, as well as environmental, impacts of GHG reduction strategies need to be considered to develop a truly sustainable climate action plan. 9. Strategic Implications Determining achievable targets and effective strategies are the next steps in Eugene’s Climate Action Plan. The task of reducing emissions is made more difficult by the excellent emissions signature of our power. It is critical to maintain the benefit of clean power, which has kept total community emissions and per capita emission relatively low. Maintaining excellent methane recovery systems is essential to prevent increased GHG emissions. Growth in natural gas use is a key issue, in part due to its proportionate increase as an energy source. Conservation remains one of the most direct and cost-effective methods to reduce GHG. Transportation must be a major focus to accomplish a large-scale reduction in community-wide emissions levels. Strategies that address both sectors and sources must be employed. Broader environmental, economic and social impacts of strategies, in addition to GHG reduction, should be considered. 10. Recommended Next Steps to Develop a Community Climate Action Plan Sign on to the Cities for Climate Protection Resolution Define the roles for governing bodies and staff groups Set Targets Identify balance between mitigation measures and adaptation planning Identify strategies and reductions to implement Identify and commit financial resources to implement climate change action. 11. References for further information The Pew Center on Global Climate Change http://www.pewclimate.org/ Oregon Governor’s Initiative on Global Warming http://www.oregon.gov/ENERGY/GBLWRM/ ICLEI: Local Governments for Sustainability http://www.iclei.org/index.php?id=391 16 Appendix 1: Data Sources and Detailed Methodology by Emissions Source Electricity Electrical power within the boundaries of this inventory comes from two utilities, Eugene Water and Electric Board (EWEB) and Blachly-Lane Electric Cooperative. The majority of the area is served by EWEB, with the exception of a small wedge bisected by Hwy 99 south of Awbrey Lane. This area is comprised primarily of commercial and industrial enterprises and is served by Blachly-Lane Coop. Data for total electrical load by sector were obtained for 1990 and 2005. EWEB provided residential, commercial, industrial and water utility data. Blachly-Lane provided commercial and industrial data. Blachly-Lane has no significant residential load within the boundaries of the inventory. Load growth projections were obtained from each utility to estimate the total use of each sector in the target year. (Listed in summary of data inputs) CO2 emissions coefficients for EWEB power for 1990, 2005 and projection for 2020 were obtained from Jim Maloney, EWEB. CAP (criteria air pollutant) emissions coefficients were calculated based on the CCAP software coefficients multiplied by percent of the resource in EWEB’s mix and projected resource mix for each year. It should be noted that most community wide inventories use emissions coefficients which are standardized by NERC (North American Electricity Reliability Council) region. Because EWEB power is significantly cleaner than either the US or regional average, custom emissions coefficients were calculated and entered in the software. The table below compares the EWEB coefficients to the regional and national standards. Comparison of Emissions Coefficients (in lbs/MWh) Region Year CO2N2OCH4NoxSox CO VOCPM10 EWEB Electricity 1990 71.2800.0000.0030.0730.155 0.004 0.0010.009 EWEB Electricity 2005 96.6000.0000.0040.0950.175 0.009 0.0020.010 EWEB Electricity-projected 2020 96.6000.0000.0040.0930.169 0.010 0.0020.010 NW Grid-WSCC/NWP 1990 969.4580.0780.0591.7741.640 0.575 0.0660.544 NW Grid-WSCC/NWP 2005 1035.5730.0750.0581.3471.353 0.599 0.0670.521 NW Grid-WSCC/NWP--proj 2020 967.4640.0620.0551.0781.019 0.661 0.0720.426 USA total 1990 1478.6130.0210.0203.5858.194 0.216 0.0260.149 USA total 2005 1491.5860.0210.0192.4615.486 0.218 0.0250.144 USA total--projected 2020 1437.7200.0190.0192.0154.068 0.246 0.0270.126 Sources for this information: Joe McFadden, Manager Member Services, Blachly-Lane Electric Tom Williams, Major Accounts, EWEB Jim Maloney, Resource Project Manager, EWEB. 17 Natural Gas Northwest Natural supplies the Eugene/Springfield area with natural gas through the North and South Eugene gates. Information for total annual therm use for both gates from 1990 to 2005 was provided. Northwest Natural also provided estimates of the percent of total used by Eugene proper and the percent of use between the three sectors within Eugene, residential, commercial and industrial. Estimates were calculated by first applying the Eugene area percent of use and then the sector split proportions. This information is summarized in the table below. Eugene UGB Natural Gas Consumption-Annual Therms % Sector split1990 1990 2005 2005 EugeneEugene Total only Total only all therms 80% all therms 80% 49,600,000 82,402,000 62,000,000 103,002,500 24,800,000 41,201,000 Residential 50% 17,360,000 28,840,700 Commercial 35% 7,440,000 12,360,300 Industrial 15% Projected growth in natural gas use in was obtained from the Northwest Natural Gas 2004 Integrated Resource Plan, Volume III, Technical Appendix. The results of NWN Gas planning process were presented in aggregate for the state of Oregon. The average of the 10 and 20 year projections for the “medium” growth scenario was 1.75%. This annual growth projection was used in the ICLEI model. Sources for this information: Doug Tilgner, Manager of System Operations, Gas Supply Dept, NW Natural Jean-Marc Ohlmann, System Design Engineer, NW Natural. Steam EWEB provides district steam to 94 commercial customers, at the time of this report, in the downtown and university areas. Steam is now produced at EWEB’s riverfront plant by burning natural gas and occasionally, light fuel oil. In 1990 the fuel for producing steam was hogged wood fuel and heavy fuel oil. Steam is distributed through a network of underground piping. The City of Eugene has 6 buildings in the downtown core that use steam for space and water heating. EWEB initially furnished information on the total annual measured consumption of the steam system in 1990 and 2005. However, figures were not available that described the overall emissions signature of EWEB steam, taking into account the mix of fuel and the efficiency of the delivery system. Figures were available, however, for the total fuel input to the steam system. 18 Since emissions coefficients were available for the fuels used and efficiency was no longer an issue upstream of the production and distribution of the steam, the input fuel was entered directly into the CCAP software for 1990 and 2005. Projecting the future use of the steam system in Eugene in 2020 proved to be a difficult task. Customers have been dropping off the EWEB steam system causing a cycle of rising cost and further loss of load. EWEB is forecasting a 10% decrease in steam sales over the next 2 years but were not able to forecast beyond. In most cases, customers pulling off the steam system will shift to natural gas for water and space heating needs. For the purposes of this inventory, the decrease in steam was shifted to natural gas use at the rate of 5% per year for the next 2 years, as projected by EWEB, and held steady from 2007 to 2020. Future updates of this inventory will adjust for the status and best known projections of the steam system at that point in time. Sources for this information: Tom Williams, Major Accounts, EWEB. Household Fuelwood The quantity of wood burned in Eugene was estimated using data from the US Census Bureau’s American Community Survey for 1990 and 2005. The survey provides an estimate for the total number of households using wood as a heating fuel in the metropolitan area. Splitting out the number of households by Eugene’s share of the metro area population and multiplying by a statewide average annual household wood use gave us the figures that were used in this inventory. Average annual household wood use was obtained from the Oregon Department of Energy. Projections for use of household fuelwood were estimated to remain at current levels. While the trend from 1990 to 2005, and anecdotal evidence from new building permits suggests that wood use is declining, increases in the cost of home heating fuel may counteract the trend. Sources for this information: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DatasetMainPageServlet?_program=ACS&_submenuId=&_lang=en&_ts= House Heating Fuel by Metropolitan Area: 1990, Congressional Information Service from U of O Knight Library archive Oregon Department of Energy, “Residential Biomass” PPT presentation Keli Osborne, Permit Review Manager, Planning and Development, City of Eugene. Fuel Oil Estimates from US Census Bureau’s American Community Survey for 1990 and 2005 were again used to derive the number of Eugene households using fuel oil. Average annual household use in Oregon came from Oregon Petroleum Association figure of 290 gallons of 19 heating oil per year. Multiplying the two together gave us the estimate for light fuel oil use in the community. Additionally, EWEB uses a small amount of fuel oil to generate steam. These figures came directly from EWEB. Sources for this information: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DatasetMainPageServlet?_program=ACS&_submenuId=&_lang=en&_ts= House Heating Fuel by Metropolitan Area: 1990, Congressional Information Service from U of O Knight Library archive Oregon Petroleum Association, quoted in “Winter Forecast Cozy for Home Heating Oil”, The Oregonian, October 19, 2006. Tom Williams, Major Accounts, EWEB. Transportation Information for transportation impacts was gathered from LCOG (Lane Council of Governments). The information does not include the impacts of traffic on I-5, since Eugene can not expect that local policies would have any affect on I-5 traffic. Input into the CACP software required VMT (Vehicle Miles Traveled) and the distribution of those by vehicle type. VMT was obtained by using the daily VMT as determined by the 2002 Regional Transportation Model completed by LCOG and splitting out the Eugene portion by percent of Eugene/Springfield population. The Eugene-only daily VMT was then backcasted for 1990 and extrapolated for 2005 using the average annual change in VMT from the Urban Mobility report as completed by the Texas Transportation Institute. Estimated 1990 and 2005 daily VMT figures were multiplied by 330, as recommended by the CCP protocol, to account for daily variation in traffic volume on weekend and holidays. This method was suggested and results reviewed by Susan Payne, LCOG. LCOG projects growth in internal Eugene VMT to be 1.27% per year. Compounded over the next 15 years the total growth in VMT is expected to be 24%. VMT distribution by vehicle types were calculated by LCOG using the EPA Mobile 6 modeling protocol. Unfortunately the Mobile 6 model does not classify passenger vehicles by size. This made it necessary to combine all passenger vehicles, including light duty trucks and SUV’s into a single classification for entry into the CCP software. When the combined passenger vehicle category is used, the CCP software uses a passenger vehicle fleet average mpg figure to calculate fuel use and thus, CO2 emissions. This average increased slightly from 16.1 mpg in 1990 to 17.7mpg in 2005, and is projected, under a business-as-usual scenario to increase to 18.4 mpg by 2020. VMT distribution used for all three years modeled is shown in the chart below. As noted earlier, we are aware that 1990 emissions are most likely overestimated to some extent because they are based on the best available, but limited, VMT distribution data. 20 VMT Distribution per Mobile6 Model LCOG to CCAP Software Category Mobile6 Category CCAP Category LDGV46.55%Light Duty Gasoline Vehicles( Psgnr Cars) Passenger Vehicle-Gas 86.73% LDGT1-2 29.07%Light Duty Gasoline Trucks( <6000lbs gvw) Passenger Vehicle-Gas LDGT3-4 11.11%Light Duty Gasoline Trucks( >6000lbs gvw) Passenger Vehicle-Gas HDGV 4.17% Heavy Duty Gasoline Vehicles Heavy Truck-Gas 4.17% LDDV0.15%Light Duty Diesel Vehicles Passenger Vehicle-Dsl 0.35% LDDT0.20%Light Duty Diesel Trucks Passenger Vehicle-Dsl HDDV 8.23% Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicles Heavy Truck-Diesel 8.23% MC0.52%MotorcyclesMotorcycles-Gas 0.52% 100.00% 100.00% Sources for this information: Susan Payne, Senior Planner, Lane Council of Governments OR DMV fleet composition for Eugene, 2002 Regional Transportation Model, o EPA Mobile 6 modeling Texas Transportation Institute, Urban Mobility Report 1982-2003. Solid Waste Eugene is fortunate to have a community level solid waste and recycling program. Data was available through this program for residential and commercial solid waste in tons for 1990 and 2005. Additionally, solid waste program estimates indicate that there may be from 10 to 20% more solid waste generated by “self-haulers” than is captured in the data. Solid waste volumes were adjusted upwards by 10% to account for this. The Oregon Department of Environmental Quality regularly conducts Waste Characterization and Composition studies. The most recent report available was done in 2002 and also contains information from previous studies in 1992-93. The 2002 DEQ data was compiled specifically for Eugene and was used in the model for 2005 figures. Earlier data specific to Eugene was not available. Comparison of the DEQ data showed that the 1992-93 data for the “rest of Oregon” showed a similar profile to Eugene data. This data was used for the 1990 inventory. (See appendix #2 for actual figures used in the CACP model). There is some difference of opinion about methane recovery rates at Oregon landfills. OR DEQ reports that attempts to measure actual methane recovery have reported rates of about 42% at the Short Mountain facility, while professional opinion based on the fact that Short Mountain is a state of the art facility, estimate a recovery rate of 80%. The CACP model was run with both methane recovery rates. In both cases the GHG impact was negative. The 80% recovery rate was used in the model to maintain consistency with the state-level inventory. Sources for this information: Alex Cuyler and Nancy Young, Solid Waste and Recycling Analysts, City of Eugene Dave Allaway, OR Dept of Environmental Quality Pete Spendelow, OR Dept of Environmental Quality. 21 Appendix 2: Summary of Data Inputs to CACP software Annual Growth Projections 19902005to 2020 EWEB (kwh) Residential 958,057,848 960,623,460 1.06% Commercial 533,748,372 740,774,729 1.06% Industrial 355,832,248 493,849,820 1.06% Blachly-Lane Coop (kwh) Commercial 7,314,575 8,838,538 1.06% Industrial 69,680,949 84,198,701 1.06% Northwest Natural Gas (therms) Residential 24,800,000 41,201,000 1.75% Commercial 17,360,000 28,840,700 1.75% Industrial 7,440,000 12,360,300 1.75% 2020 Commercial also includes 10% fuel switch from Steam, with efficiency factor. EWEB steam (fuel units) Commercial units hog fuel 41,468 3,479,000 therms -10% gal light gal heavy oil 66,234 22,584 oil -10% Household Firewood (cords) 20,518 11,292 0% Household Fuel Oil (gallons) 907,475 371,588 -60% VMT (millions of miles per year) 828.46 925.22 1.27% Waste disposed (tons) Residential 40,700 24,974 2.56% Commercial 64,900 80,906 Waste Composition Estimates 1992-93 2002 "Rest of Oregon" Eugene only Paper 29.51% 21.99% Food Waste 17.55% 15.31% Plant Debris 9.42% 6.02% Wood/Textiles 9.51% 18.10% All other 34.01% 38.58% 22