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history of these dams is given below in Table 12.5 (Corps of Engineers, Portland <br />District Office, March, 2001). <br /> <br /> Table 12.5 <br /> Seismic Design, Evaluation and Inspection Data <br /> Corps of Engineers Dams <br /> <br /> Date of Last Seismic Design Basis Date of Last <br /> Dam Seismic Periodic <br /> Evaluation Original Current inspection <br /> Cottage Grove 1981 None 0 21 g 1997 <br /> Dexter 1981 0 10 g 0.21 g 1996 <br /> Fall Creek 1981 0.10 g 0 21 g 1999 <br /> Dorena 1981 none 0 21 g 1997 <br /> Lookout Point 1981 0.10 g 0 21 g 1999 <br /> Blue River 1994 0.t 0 g 0.24 g 1996 <br /> Hills Creek 2000 0.10 g 0.22 g 1999 <br /> Cougar 1994 0 10 g 0.24 g 1997 <br /> Fern Ridge 2001 none 0~35 g 2000 <br /> <br />As shown in Table 12.6, the Corps has conducted at least preliminary seismic <br />evaluations of all of these dams. However, some of lhese evaluations were conducted <br />in the 1980s and thus do not reflect current understanding of the seismic hazard in <br />Oregon or current state-of-the-art seismic evaluation engineering principles. The <br />Corps has an ongoing regular inspection program and an ongoing seismic evaluation <br />program. Presumably, updated seismic evaluations of these dams will be completed <br />over the next few years. <br /> <br />Seismic considerations were completely absent in the design of two of these dams: <br />Dorena and Fern Ridge. The others were explicitly designed or probably designed to <br />ground shaking levels of 0.10 g, which is the maximum seismic design level for any of <br />the Corps dams in western Oregon. In contrast, the current Corps seismic design <br />levels for dams at these sites (i.e., if new dams were to be built today) would be 0.21 g <br />to 0.24g for the dams in eastern Lane County and 0.35 g for Fern Ridge. Thus, <br />current seismic design requirements are for levels of ground shaking about two times <br />higher than the probable design levels for most of these dams and about three times <br />higher for Fern Ridge. <br /> <br />Seismic evaluations of dam safety are a highly technical, highly specialized art. <br />Separate evaluations must be done for each dam. The evaluation requires a detailed <br />analysis of the design and construction of the dam, an analysis of the current condition <br />of materials and components, geotechnical analysis of the foundation and site, and a <br />site-specific seismic hazard analysis. For emergency planning purposes, a seismic <br />evaluation should include the probabilities of failure for a scenario earthquake such as <br />a large magnitude event on the Cascadia Subduction Zone. <br /> <br /> 12.5,3 Loss Estimates (Preliminary) <br /> <br />Detailed loss estimates for possible failures of these dams are beyond the scope of <br />this mitigation plan. However, we note that in 1987 the Oregon Emergency <br />Management Division6 estimated that a completely catastrophic failure of the Hills <br /> <br />Public Review Draft: August 6, 2004 <br /> 12-8 <br /> <br /> <br />