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figure for the UGB is because the UGB, not the Metropolitan Study Area, is the area of <br /> the Metro Plan's planning jurisdiction. The current figure and range for the Metropolitan <br /> Study Area is merely a technical number used in the analysis. It has no relationship to the <br /> population size Eugene and Springfield are required to serve in the year 2015. <br /> <br /> How the UGB 2015 population was derive& <br /> <br /> The Eugene-Springfield urban growth boundary (UGB) population projections were <br /> derived starting with the 2015 expected housing demand for the Metro Study Area. From <br /> the 2015 expected housing demand for the Metro Study Area, the existing and expected <br /> housing units inside the Metro Study Area and outside the Eugene-Springfield UGB were <br /> subtracted to arrive at the 2015 expected housing demand for the UGB. Vacant housing <br /> units (assumed at 3.5%) were subtracted from 2015 expected housing demand for the <br /> UGB to arrive at total 2015 households in the UGB. The 2015 projected average <br /> household size of 2.27 was then applied to total expected households which resulted in <br /> total 2015 expected population in households. Then the group quarters population <br /> (assumed at 3% of the total population) was added to the total 2015 expected population <br /> in households to arrive at the 2015 total expected UGB population. <br /> <br /> Relationship of Population Projection to Employment: <br /> <br /> In developing the 2015 Lane County and Metropolitan Study Area population projections, <br /> the civilian labor force was projected for use in the migration component of the model. <br /> The employment projection was forecast independently; although population played a <br /> role in forecasting employment, particularly retail employment. Once both the <br /> employment and population projections were generated, the population to employment <br /> ratio was developed and reviewed for reasonableness. <br /> <br /> Recommendation: Staff recommends retaining the edits to the population figure in <br /> Exhibit A. The UGB population for the year 2015 is necessary in order to ensure <br /> coordination with public facility planning and coordinated population projections with <br /> other jurisdictions in Lane County. <br /> <br />2. What were the specific reasons for proposing changes to the policies? <br /> <br /> Text changes throughout Exhibit A, including some of the policies, were changed for the <br /> following general reasons: <br /> <br /> · "Projected service area" is changed to UGB throughout the document because the <br /> concept of a projected service area was replaced with the UGB when the Metro <br /> Plan was adopted in 1982 but the old language was not removed at that time; <br /> <br /> · Text edits to improve grammar that do not alter the meaning, e.g. "that" to <br /> "which" and "sanitary sewer" to "wastewater," etc; <br /> <br />Metro Plan Periodic Review Text and Diagram Amendments Staff Notes Page 7 of 28 <br /> City Council Agenda pa§e 309 <br /> <br /> <br />