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24,500 students consistently over this period.11 The University plans to build an approximately 1,500 additional bed spaces over the 2007 to 2017 period.12 The housing choice of retirees may also affect the share of population in group quarters. The State Office of Economic Analysis (OEA) projects that the share of population of people 60 years and older in Lane County will increase from 17% of the population in 2000 to 26% of the population in 2030.13 Seniors have a range of housing choices, from remaining in their current home, downsizing to a smaller home, moving to independent living situations, and nursing homes. Younger, independent seniors have a preference for aging in place or choose housing that allows them greater independence, such as age restricted communities.14 As seniors age or their health deteriorates, housing choices may include assisted living facilities and nursing homes. It is difficult to estimate how much the aging of the population and greater housing choice for seniors will affect the share of population in group quarters. The trends described above suggest that population in group quarters may increase but does not provide a clear indication of how large that increase could be. For example, multiple factors could impact the University's plans to build new dorms, including student housing preferences, flat enrollment projections, and availability of State funds to build new dormitories. Senior housing preferences could also affect growth in population in group quarters. While the senior population is growing, seniors are frequently choosing independent living situations, unless health factors require nursing care. 11 University of Oregon Enrollment Projections, supplied by J.P. Monroe, Ph. D., Director of Institutional Research, March 2013. 12 University of Oregon report, Strategic Housing Plan Consultant's Report, March 26, 2008. Accessed on 4/9/2013 from: http:/ /uplan.uoregon.edu/ projects/Project%20Sums %20for%2OWeb/ HousingPlan/UO_HSP_FIN AL_MAIN.pdf 13 Source: Oregon Office of Economic Analysis. http: / / www. oregon. gov/ DAS/ OEA/ docs/ demographic/ pop_by_ageandsex. xls 14 AARP, Fixing to Stay: A national surrey of housing and home modification issues, May 2000 http: / / www. aarp. org/ research/ surveys/ stats/ surveys/ public/ articles/ aresearch-import- 783.html Part 11 — Eugene Housing Needs Analysis ECONorthwest Page 33