Ordinance No. 20585 - Laserfiche WebLink

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be 214,693 people by 2032. The analysis assumes that Eugene will grow by 33,778 people between 2012 and 2032. 3.1.2 Persons in group quarters Persons in group quarters do not consume standard housing units. Thus, any forecast of new people in group quarters is typically backed out of the population forecast for the purpose of estimating housing demand (group quarters is then accounted for later in the demand analysis). Group quarters can have a big influence on housing in cities with colleges (dormitories), correctional facilities, or a large elderly population (nursing homes). In general, any new requirements for these housing types will be met by institutions (colleges, government agencies, health-care corporations) operating outside of what is typically defined as the housing market. However, group quarters require land and are typically built at densities that are comparable to multi -family dwellings. Table 9 shows persons in group quarters in the Eugene as reported by the 1990, 2000, and 2010 Decennial Census and 2011 American Community Survey. The share of persons in group quarters varied from 5.5% in 1990 to 4.0% in 2011. Table 9. Persons in group quarters, City of Eugene, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2011 Source: U.S. Census 1990 SF1 P028, U.S. Census 2000 SF1 P37, American Community Survey 2007 B26001 Consistent with the 2010 Census data, the analysis assumes that 4.6% of new persons (1,554 persons) in Eugene between 2012 and 2032 will reside in group quarters. The majority of these new persons will live in congregate housing or assisted living quarters. The share of population in group quarters may be affected by two trends: (1) growth in student population at the University of Oregon and (2) growth in retirees. Growth in the student population will be affected by change in enrollment growth at the University of Oregon and the University's provision of dormitory space. The University projects flat enrollment over the 2012 to 2021 period, with an enrollment of about Page 32 ECONorthwest Part 11 — Eugene Housing Needs Analysis 1990 2000 2010 2011 Total Population 112,669 137,893 156185 156,921 Persons in Group Quarters 6,174 6,086 7249 6,303 Percent in Group Quarters 5.5% 4.4% 4.6% 4.0% Source: U.S. Census 1990 SF1 P028, U.S. Census 2000 SF1 P37, American Community Survey 2007 B26001 Consistent with the 2010 Census data, the analysis assumes that 4.6% of new persons (1,554 persons) in Eugene between 2012 and 2032 will reside in group quarters. The majority of these new persons will live in congregate housing or assisted living quarters. The share of population in group quarters may be affected by two trends: (1) growth in student population at the University of Oregon and (2) growth in retirees. Growth in the student population will be affected by change in enrollment growth at the University of Oregon and the University's provision of dormitory space. The University projects flat enrollment over the 2012 to 2021 period, with an enrollment of about Page 32 ECONorthwest Part 11 — Eugene Housing Needs Analysis