Ordinance No. 20585 - Laserfiche WebLink

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This data suggests that vacancy rates in Eugene have varied over the 1990 to 2011 period on an annual basis. In reality, vacancy rates are cyclical and vary across the year. For examples, vacancy rates tend to be lower in September, at the start of the University of Oregon school year, and higher during the summer, when the University of Oregon is not in session. Up until 2006, Duncan and Brown, a Eugene real estate analysis firm, produced reports about housing rentals and vacancies in the Eugene - Springfield region. Fall vacancy rates for apartments varied between about 0.5% to about 5.2% between 1990 and 2006. Vacancy rates in Eugene's neighborhoods also varied by area, with vacancy rates generally lower near the University and higher further away from the University.15 The analysis assumes a 5.0% average vacancy rate in Eugene for the 2012 to 2032 period, based on recent vacancy rates. 3.1.5 Forecast of new housing units, 2012-2032 The preceding analysis leads to a forecast of new housing units likely to be built in Eugene during the 2012 to 2032 period and outlines the building blocks of a housing demand analysis. Table 10 shows an estimate of needed housing in Eugene for the 2012 to 2032 period, based on recent data. The projection is based on the following assumptions: • Population will increase by 33,778 people from 2012 to 2032, as forecast in Lane County's adopted population forecast. • About 4.6% percent of the new population or 1,554 people will live in group quarters, based on the share of population in group quarters from the 2010 Census and the assumption that the share of population in group quarters will not change. • The average household size will be 2.24 people per household, based on information from the 2010 Census. • Vacancy rates for all housing types will be 5.0%, based on recent vacancy rates in Eugene. Based on the assumptions shown in Table 10, Eugene will need 15,105 new dwelling units to accommodate population growth between 2012 and 2032, not including new group quarters. The results indicate that Eugene will need to issue permits for 719 new dwelling units annually during the planning period. This figure is about the same as the 736 dwelling units 15 Duncan & Brown Apartment Report. Fall 2000 -Fall 2006. Daniel J. Puffinburger, Corey S. Dingman, Duncan & Brown Real Estate Analysts Part 11 — Eugene Housing Needs Analysis ECONorthwest Page 35