Ordinance No. 20585 - Laserfiche WebLink

Home Browse Search

3.2 Step 2: Identify relevant national, state, and local demographic and economic trends and factors that may affect the 20 - year projection of housing type mix 3.2.1 National Housing Trends The overview of national, state, and local housing trends builds from previous work by ECO, Urban Land Institute (ULI) reports, and conclusions from The State of the Nation's Housing, 2012 report from the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University.16 The Harvard report summarizes the national housing outlook as follows: "After several false starts, there is reason to believe that 2012 will mark the beginning of a true housing market recovery. Sustained employment growth remains key, providing the stimulus for stronger household growth and bringing relief to some distressed homeowners. Many rental markets have already turned the corner, giving a lift to multi -family construction but also eroding affordability for many low-income households. While gaining ground, the homeowner market still faces multiple challenges. If the broader economy weakens in the short term, the housing rebound could again stall." The national housing market continues to suffer from a large backlog of foreclosed homes, large numbers of 'underwater' mortgages, and high vacancy rates. The eventual recovery of the national housing market is dependent on near-term resolution of outstanding foreclosures and long- term job growth and expansion of the economy. Recent trends in home ownership and demand The last seven years saw a continuation of the significant departure from the recent housing boom that had lasted for 13 consecutive years (1992- 2005). While strength in early 2005 pushed most national housing indicators into record territory, the market began to soften and sales slowed in many areas in the latter half of 2005. By 2006, higher prices and rising interest rates had a negative impact on market demand. Investor demand, home sales and single-family starts dropped sharply. Growth in national sales prices also slowed. By 2007 and early 2008, housing market problems had reached the rest of the economy, resulting in a nationwide 16 http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/research/publications/state-nation%E2%80%99s-housing-2012 Part 11 - Eugene Housing Needs Analysis ECONorthwest Page 37