Agenda Packet 6-24-19 Work Session

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Urban Reserves Technical Analysis Supplement 3 2019 population forecasts and assumptions moved forward from Envision Eugene, including average household size, vacancy rate, and persons in group quarters. Source: ECONorthwest, City of Eugene Urban Reserves Land Need Model, 2019 Taking into consideration the Land Need Model’s residential and employment density assumptions moved forward from Envision Eugene, this translates to a need of between 1,803 and 5,868 acres of land for residential, employment, and other (public and semi-public) uses depending on the planning period, as shown in the table below. See the table on Page 10 for density assumptions for low density residential housing, shown as dwelling units/acre. Full details can be found in the “Land Need Model, May 2019 Update,” Assumptions and Capacity worksheets. Land Use Land Needed for Urban Reserves 1 2032- 2042 2032- 2052 2032- 2062 Residential 1,203 2,528 3,904 Employment 525 1,113 1,769 Other 75 134 195 Total (acres) 1,803 3,775 5,868 Source: ECONorthwest, City of Eugene Urban Reserves Land Need Model, 2019 The Envision Eugene Technical Advisory Committee (EETAC) reviewed the Land Need Model assumptions and the resulting land demand identified over two meetings, on November 1 and November 15, 2018. Additional time was spent reviewing the 2019 Portland State University Draft Population Forecast and its implications for Urban Reserves, on April 18, 2019. 1 These numbers are based on assumptions and data reviewed to date and are subject to change. Structure type Dwelling Units Needed for Urban Reserves 2032- 2042 2032- 2052 2032- 2062 housing mix Single-family detached DU 3,800 7,824 12,001 55% Single-family attached DU 553 1,138 1,746 8% Two to four DU 829 1,707 2,618 12% Five or more DU 1,727 3,557 5,455 25% Total new dwelling units 6,909 14,226 21,820 June 24, 2019, Work Session – Item 2