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<br /> <br />Urban Reserves Technical Analysis Supplement 2 <br /> <br /> <br />UGB and Urban Reserves Planning Periods and Population Forecasts <br /> <br />Based on Portland State University’s Draft 2019 Forecast for Eugene, the Land Need Model shows up <br />to 48,792 new residents between 2032 and 2062, which is a growth rate of approximately 0.7 percent. <br />In addition, using the 2017 Oregon Employment Department forecast, the Land Need Model projects <br />up to 56,008 new employees in Eugene over the same time period. See the summary of proposed <br />employment forecast and population forecast below. <br /> <br />Year <br />Employment <br />growth <br />Employment <br />change <br />(from 2032) <br />Population <br />growth <br />Population <br />change <br />(from 2032) <br />2032 <br /> <br />148,460 213,619 <br />2042 <br /> <br />165,177 16,716 229,067 15,448 <br />2052 <br /> <br />183,775 35,315 245,432 31,813 <br />2062 <br /> <br />204,468 56,008 262,412 48,792 <br />Source: Oregon Employment Department (2017 Employment Forecast), Portland State University <br />(2019 Draft Population Forecast), ECONorthwest, City of Eugene Urban Reserves Land Need Model <br /> <br /> <br />As shown in the following table, the Land Need Model also shows a need of between 6,909 and 21,820 <br />total new dwelling units, depending on the planning period, for all structure types. This is based on <br />June 24, 2019, Work Session – Item 2