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<br /> <br />Urban Reserves Technical Analysis Supplement 1 <br /> <br />MEMORANDUM <br /> <br />To: Eugene City Council <br />Date: June 24, 2019 <br />From: Rebecca Gershow, City of Eugene Planning Division <br />Subject: Urban Reserves Technical Analysis Supplement <br /> <br />This memorandum summarizes the technical analysis phase of Urban Reserves planning. Major <br />elements include the Land Need Model; Study Area Development; and the Land Supply Model. <br /> <br />Urban Reserves Land Need Model <br />Over the summer and fall of 2018, the City contracted with ECONorthwest to retrofit the Land <br />Sufficiency Model developed for estimating the amount of land needed and the development capacity <br />of the 2012-2032 Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI) during the UGB expansion analysis. The result is the <br />Urban Reserves Land Need Model (Land Need Model) – its purpose is to estimate the amount of land <br />needed for residential, employment and other uses over the 2032-2062 Urban Reserves planning <br />period. Key assumptions include: <br /> <br />Forecast Period—The model calculates land needed for Urban Reserves ranging from a 10-year <br />to a 30-year forecast period, or any years in between, depending on the population and <br />employment assumptions input in the model. We show timeframes as 2032-2042; 2032-2052; <br />or 2032-2062 for comparison purposes only. <br /> <br />Land Demand and Capacity Assumptions—Wherever possible, the same assumptions are used <br />in the Urban Reserves Land Need Model as were used during the 2017 UGB analysis. Some of <br />the assumptions incorporated into the Urban Reserves Land Need Model include average <br />household size, vacancy rate, housing mix, and residential and employment densities. <br /> <br />Employment Forecast—The Land Need Model uses the 2017 Oregon Employment Department <br />annual growth rate for Lane County of 1.07 percent, the most recent forecast available. It is <br />based on the 10-year forecast for Lane County that is extrapolated through 2062. <br /> <br />Population Forecast—Council directed staff to use the most current population forecast in <br />place, which at the time of Council direction was the 2015 Portland State University forecast for <br />Eugene and Lane County. However, this spring, a draft 2019 Forecast was released that will be <br />finalized on June 30, 2019. The 2019 Forecast, reflected in the following chart, is now being <br />used in the Land Need Model as it has virtually the same bottom line results for Urban Reserves <br />planning as the 2015 Forecast, and it is the most current forecast in place. <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />ATTACHMENT B <br />June 24, 2019, Work Session – Item 2