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Eugene -Springfield Area Natural Hazards Mitigation Plan 4. Risk and Vulnerability The following section further describes each of the components and the methodology for the assessment. 4.3 Probability, Vulnerability, and Capacity Assessment Process This Section explains the methodology used to arrive at the conclusions found in Section 2 of this plan. It does not represent the analysis used to determine the risk for specific natural hazards threatening the Eugene -Springfield area. The processes used by the Project Team to arrive at the conclusions of probability of future occurrence of natural hazards and the overall vulnerability and capacity to respond to each identified hazard was critical to prioritizing risk for the Eugene - Springfield area. Table 4.1 provides the relative ratings used to assess the vulnerability to, probability of, and capacity of Eugene and Springfield to respond to, and recover from each natural hazard. Table 4-1 Hazard Analysis Methodology Vulnerability High More than 70% of population or assets affected Moderate 10%- 69% of population or assets affected Low Less than 9% of population or assets affected Probability High One incident likely within 0-35 years Moderate One incident likely within 35-75 years Low High One incident likely within 75-100 years No outside resources needed Moderate Less than 49 outside resources needed Low More than 50 outside resources needed 4.3.1 Natural Hazards The natural hazards affecting the Cities of Eugene and Springfield, EWEB, Rainbow Water District, and SUB include, but are not limited to, droughts, earthquakes, extreme weather, floods, GMD, landslides, volcanoes, wildfires, and wind and winter storms. This plan also addresses civil unrest, dam or levee failures, epidemics, and hazardous material spills; four anthropogenic hazards closely connected to natural hazards. Referred to as cascading incidents, these hazards can occur independently, or because of natural hazards. 4-4 January 2020