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Eugene -Springfield Area Natural Hazards Mitigation Plan 2. Hazard Descriptions of magnetized plasma It is believed a direct hit by an extreme CME may cause widespread power blackouts which could disable everything plugged into a wall socket.56 Anything running on electricity or utilizing electronics could be damaged or ruined unless properly shielded. 2.6.2 Climate Change At this point, it is unknown how climate change may affect a major GMD incident. 2.6.3 History of the Hazard in Eugene -Springfield There are no known instances of a significant GMD affecting the Eugene - Springfield area Solar flares hit the earth often, also seen as the phenomenon known as the "Northern Lights". Most of the time, however, they do little to no damage. Most people have experienced GMDs in the form of radio and satellite disruptions. What is not as common is the more destructive portion of a solar flare, the CMEs, directly striking earth. Geomagnetic disturbances fluctuate with the Sun's 11-year Solar Cycle. More solar flares are observed during the Solar Maximum when sunspots and solar activity are at their highest. Scientists number these cycles in sequential order as they occur. Solar Cycle 24 started around December 2008, and the solar maximum was seen around November 2014. Solar Cycle 25 is predicted to start around 2019 or 2020. One of the strongest GMD incidents to hit earth occurred in 1859 and is dubbed the Carrington Incident. This is believed to be near the peak of Solar Cycle 10. At the time, the Northern Lights could be seen in Cuba, and global telegraph lines sparked causing many fires and service disruptions.57 The National Academy of Sciences predicts a similar incident occurring now would exceed $2 trillion in damages and recovery would take years. hi February 2012 earth had a near miss as the strongest CME seen since the Carrington Incident missed earth by a week. The strongest modern era GMD to hit earth occurred on March 13, 1989 during Solar Cycle 22's maximum. It immediately caused short -wave radio interference. The Northern Lights were reported in Southern Florida and Cuba. Several satellites lost control, and the Shuttle Discovery experienced mysterious electrical problems. The large GMD caused a blackout across all of Quebec, Canada. There were hundreds of power grid problems in the U.S. though no blackouts due to low 56 United States. Phillips, Tony. "Near Miss: The Solar Superstorm of July 2012." NASA. July 23, 2014. Accessed November 17, 2017. https:Hscience.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at- nasa/2014/23jul_superstorm. 57 United States. Lovett, Richard. National Geographic News. What if the Biggest Solar Storm on Record Happened Today? March 2011. Accessed August 2019. httos://www.nationalgeopTaohic.com/news/2011/3/110302-solar-flares-sun-storms-earth-danger- carrington-event-science/ 2-40 January 2020