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AVIATION DEMAND FORECASTS DERIVATIVE COMMERCIAL PASSENGER FORECASTS In order to examine the potential impact on key airport facilities of possible changes in air traffic volumes, alternative activity estimate scenarios of enplaned passenger and commercial aircraft operations were established. This effort began with an examination of four scenarios of commercial passenger related aviation activity based on trend analysis and statistical correlation of enplaned passenger volumes with various key economic indexes that generally impact air traffic growth as analyzed previously in Section 2.4, Forecasts of Aviation Activity. The activity estimates generated by these scenarios were compared with the preliminary FAA 2016 TAF volumes to validate the draft TAF data and aid in examining a range of potential aviation activity that should be considered in the future. Derivative Forecast Scenarios As shown in Table 2-14, the analysis between historic annual passenger enplanement volumes at EUG between 2006 and 2015, and key economic indexes for the Eugene Metropolitan Area for the same period, shows a high statistical correlation between passenger enplanement and gross regional product, 2 per capita income, and personal income when considering the coefficient of determination (R) found between them. TABLE 2-14 LEVELS OF STATISTICAL CORRELATION Coefficient of Economic Index 2 Determination (R) Population0.6021 0.8801 Per Capita Income (in 2009 $) 0.8814 Personal Income 0.8946 Per Capita Income Gross Regional Product0.9164 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Woods and Poole, Airport Statistics and RS&H Computations Accounting for this high correlation factor, three alternative forecast scenarios for enplaned passengers were established based on the expected growth of the region’s gross regional product (Scenario 1), on the region’s per capita income (Scenario 2), and on the region’s personal income (Scenario 3). Additionally a fourth alternative scenario was prepared based on the historic trend in enplaned passenger annual volumes between 2006 and 2015. Table 2-15 below presents the results of the analysis and compares the results with projected preliminary 2016 TAF values. The table also shows the compounded annual growth rates (CAGR) between the years of analysis. For 2020 the CAGR is computed against actual 2015 values. TABLE 2-15 PASSENGER ENPLANEMENT SCENARIOS Prelim Scenario 1 (GRP)Scenario 2 (PCI)Scenario 3 (PI)Scenario 4 (Trend) Year2016 VariationVariationVariationVariation CAGREPAXCAGREPAXCAGREPAXCAGREPAXCAGR TAF with TAFwith TAFwith TAFwith TAF 2020 528,4763.54%529,7993.00%0.3%567,7384.44%7.4%619,9126.29%17.3%500,3781.83%-5.3% 2025 572,7251.62%589,6142.16%2.9%680,1723.68%18.8%787,3854.90%37.5%558,4712.22%-2.5% 2035 666,2891.52%773,8222.76%16.1%861,1482.39%29.2%1,091,5483.32%63.8%674,6571.91%1.3% Sources: Preliminary FAA 2016 TAF data, RS&H Computations, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Woods and Poole, 2016 EUGENE AIRPORT MASTER PLAN 2-23