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AVIATION DEMAND FORECASTS Table 2-16 compares annual commercial operations values between the TAF and the four scenarios. Aircraft operation values where computed assuming similar current passenger to commercial operation ratios found for 2016. TABLE 2-16 PASSENGER AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS SCENARIOS Prelim Scenario 1 (GRP)Scenario 2 (PCI)Scenario 3 (PI)Scenario 4 (Trend) Year2016 VariationVariationVariationVariation CAGROPSCAGROPSCAGROPSCAGROPSCAGR TAF with TAFwith TAFwith TAFwith TAF 2020 18,0101.83%16,4542.09%-8.6%17,6323.32%-2.1%19,2524.46%6.9%15,5402.13%-13.7% 2025 19,6541.76%17,6541.42%-10.2%20,3662.92%3.6%23,5764.14%20.0%16,7221.48%-14.9% 2035 22,6641.44%22,3662.39%-1.3%24,8902.03%9.8%31,5482.96%39.2%19,5001.55%-14.0% Sources: Preliminary FAA 2016 TAF data, RS&H Computations, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Woods and Poole, 2016 From the results of the analysis, it is evident that the preliminary FAA 2016 TAF values for passenger enplanements closely follow Scenario 1 which is based on the Woods and Poole forecasted rate of growth for gross regional product in the Eugene area. Additionally, the historical trend line, Scenario 4, is also in line with Scenario 1 and the preliminary FAA 2016 TAF. Scenario 1 has the highest statistical correlation with historical data of any of the economic indicators that were analyzed. The fact that the preliminary FAA 2016 TAF values are very close to this highly correlated scenario as well as the extrapolated historical trend serves to validate the data as being a reasonable forecast for EUG. Thus, as previously noted, the preliminary 2016 TAF forecast for commercial enplanements and operations is being carried forward in this master plan. Figure 2-17 illustrates the four scenario forecasts of enplanement levels along with the 2015 TAF and the preliminary 2016 TAF data. Scenario forecasts are useful for identifying a particular range of facility requirements that might be needed should air service grow at a faster or slower rate than identified by the preferred forecast (in this case the preliminary 2016 TAF). The analysis clearly indicates that the range of future passenger enplanement levels is likely to materialize somewhere between the trend line (Scenario 4) and Scenario 3 (the low and high scenarios). However, though Scenario 3 showed a reasonable amount of statistical correlation, the growth rate was determined to be too aggressive when compared to those better correlated indicators, and was removed from consideration. Thus the range of reasonable enplanement volumes that should be considered and planned for in the future lie between the historical trend and Scenario 2 (PCI). This range is used in the following section as a tool to validate the design day and design hour forecasts. EUGENE AIRPORT MASTER PLAN 2-24