Ordinance No. 20159 - Laserfiche WebLink

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~4s def ned by ~,~R 6b0-OS-005(5), `Mousing deeds Projection "re ers to a local dtermination . f 7ust~ed rn the Plan of the mix of housing types and densities that will be: (aJ Commensurate with the financial capabilities of present and uture area residents a all f f rncame levels during the planning period. .Meeting. this standards requires several steps which include determinin the o ulation ex ected g PP P over the planning period X1995-2015}and determining the expected income Levels of this population and needed household characteristics such as dwelling structure e. tYp The 1999 Technical Supply and Demand Analysis contains detailed ex lanation of the p population forecast used in this study, There are four components of the o ulation model: .. Pp fertility, mortality, nugrat~on and a special population. The fertili com onent which tY p accounts for births, and the mortality component, which accounts for deaths., combine to determine natural increase. An economic component was used to ro'ect mi ation, The pJ ~ University of Gregon students were considered a special population and were not included in the resident population. The model separated population change into com onents and P projected each component independently, The model begins with a base o ulation broken pp vr~to five-year cohorts. For these projections, 199o U. S. Census figures were used, Po ulation . p proJect~ans were developed far Lane County first. This allowed for the comparison with other projections and actual birth, death and labor force data. After the coup ro'ections were ~p J arrived at, the pro~ect~ons were developed for the Eugene-Springfield Metro olitan Stud p Y Area. In 1990, the Eugene-Springf eld metropolitan study area population was 204,359. The metro area population is projected to reach 301,440 persons by 2015, an increase of 97,041 ersons or . P a 47 percent increase. This represents a 1.57 percent annual average increase over the ~5- ear Y period 1990 to 2015. Between 1994 and 2010, the Eugene-Springf eld metro area o ulation is Pp expected to grow faster than both the state and the County, increasing at an annual avera a rate g of approximately 1.54 percent compared to the state's 1.45 and the Coun 's 1.50, The table in the 1999 Technical Supply and Demand Analysis report titled Eu ene-S rin field M ro olitan Area, Panu~ flan shows in five year increments the expected population. There are a number of factors that affect the demand for housing in addition to the rowth in . g households. To Identify the long-run market for housing in the Eugene-S rin field UGB P g ECGNorthwest and Leland Consulting Group conducted an analysis. See A endix B of the pp February 1999, Draft Supply and Demand Technical Analysis. These consultants identified and proj ected the relevant factors and proj ected the residential demand for housin units b housin g Y g type. This analysis shows that the population will be older, less affluent and will need smaller and alternative dwelling units. Using the population proj ection and the results from the ECQNorthwest and Leland Consulting Group study, the expected housing unit needs b e Y tYp was developed see 1999 Technical Supply and Demand Analysis, section titled Pro'ectin ~~ 1 ~ -Findings in Support of Metro Plan Amendments